"Dragon Baby" drives birth rate recovery
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1799843297498248058&wfr=spider&for=pcDragon babies boost fertility recovery
Although there is no official statistics, many maternal and child care practitioners have already felt the recovery of fertility in the first five months.
"It has not reached the level before the epidemic, but it is indeed busier than the previous two years." A staff member of a maternity hospital in Beijing told Caixin that the number of pregnant women visiting the hospital has dropped significantly after the epidemic. After the Lunar New Year of the Dragon, the decline finally stopped and gradually recovered.
A recent report from the Kunming Daily stated that since 2024, the Kunming Maternal and Child Health Hospital has welcomed a total of 2,608 dragon babies, with a significant increase in the number of births; according to a report from the Jiangmen Daily on April 1, the Jiangmen Maternal and Child Health Hospital and Jiangmen Central Hospital, which rank among the top in terms of births in Jiangmen City, had a total of 1,404 "dragon babies" born in 50 days from February 10 (the first day of the Lunar New Year) to March 31, an increase of 15% over the same period last year.
The increase in the number of births is felt most significantly by milk powder companies.
He Kanghui, the operator of Bright Dairy's small molecule milk powder, told the First Financial News that the market changes brought about by the increase in the number of births have been felt. Some regional markets have reported that the sales of stage 1 milk powder (0-6 months) have been rising since this year. The original sales ratio of stage 1, 2, and 3 infant formula should be 2:3:5. Recently, the sales ratio of stage 1 and stage 2 infant formula in some regional markets has been very close. He is also optimistic about the sales for the whole year, hoping to achieve a 50% to 60% increase.
The first quarter financial report of 2024 of Aiyishi (603214.SH), a maternal and infant chain enterprise, showed that its milk powder segment achieved revenue of 480 million yuan in the first three months, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, while Aiyishi's milk powder business as a whole declined by 12.2% in 2023.
Cao Tianwei, general manager of China Infant Business Information, told China Business News that during recent market visits, a number of maternal and infant chain channels reported that sales of stage 1 milk powder had increased, mainly due to the release of some fertility demand that had been delayed in the past three years.
At the performance meeting held earlier, Yili's management also predicted that the number of births in 2024 should increase compared to 2023. The main reasons include that the pent-up fertility demand caused by the epidemic will continue to be replenished this year; considering the Chinese people's preference for the zodiac sign of "dragon", it is also beneficial to the increase in fertility rate.
The new round of internal competition is already tense
In the past few years, due to the continuous decline in the number of newborns, the domestic infant formula market has continued to shrink. The recent market changes have also made many practitioners breathe a sigh of relief. Nielsen IQ data shows that in the first three months of 2024, the overall infant formula market data fell from a double-digit decline to a decline of 6.1%.
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