A2M 0.44% $6.85 the a2 milk company limited

Media Updates, page-3158

  1. 2,019 Posts.
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    No idea how to go about that.... The great thing about investing though, we don't need to prove that we are correct. If our thinking is correct we will be rewarded handsomely with solid returns and the money does the only talking that matters. I ask myself sometimes, how can it be so easy? SP has gone down significantly, so it makes sense to top of for extra returns and reap the rewards when new all time highs are made. Its too easy. I did this with CSL when it was down in 180s around a year ago and again with RMD when it was hammered around 6 months ago. As long as the investment thesis is still intact, top ups should always be made when the price dips down.
    When I first invested in A2 milk in Aug 2017, my largest concern was, is this a gimmick? Is there really a difference in the type of milk? Over years I have read hundreds of reviews (the USA FB page is full of reviews and comments from people saying they can drink milk again), that my concerns have been alleviated. We have a company with a unique proposition that is selling in the 2 largest economies in the world. In China, the biggest selling factor is that is made in NZ and the brand is associated with NZ/AU and the other unique selling point is that is A2 milk. We are the original 'A2 milk Company'. No amount of new entrants will ever take that away from us.
    In the US, we are selling solely because of the A1 protein free milk proposition. There is enough evidence for me that this milk is better than normal milk so we should gain sales in the US as well.
    Maybe the growth rate will be 27% instead of 29.5%. In the short term the market will hammer it but in the mid to long term, does it really matter? The company is still going strong and nothing has happened to bring an end to that growth. I know that growing at 30 or 40% will come to and end (or already has) but going into the future, we will probably have a terminal growth rate of 8 - 10% and a lot of analysts don't seem to account for that. Even a 10% growth rate justifies a PE of around 25 to 30 (assuming the growth rate will be sustained over the long term). By these metrics, we are trading very cheap already.
    The only thing that will break my investment thesis is if there is a contamination in our milk powder/infant formula OR if sales growth in the USA slows drastically implying that the US is not a viable market for us. I can't think of any other reason why our growth rate in China will slow down. If the marketing has been working so far, what makes anyone think it will stop working all of a sudden?
 
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Last
$6.85
Change
-0.030(0.44%)
Mkt cap ! $4.952B
Open High Low Value Volume
$6.93 $6.98 $6.83 $10.27M 1.490M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
7 18844 $6.84
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$6.85 41602 1
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Last trade - 16.10pm 15/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
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