I think I said exactly as much on Friday - no updated...

I think I said exactly as much on Friday - no updated forecasting from A2M to SM1 means they would likely just reiterate what they said just three weeks ago. No reason why A2M increase production in the middle of drawing down inventory until they were dead certain they needed to.

The beauty of not having 'take or pay' supply arrangements is that you have flexibility to increase order quantities only when it is crystal clear that the running down of inventory is complete. If you ask me, A2M did not take enough of an advantage of that flexibility earlier in 2020 when they thought daigou would rebound sooner than it did and clearly continued English label production longer than they should have.

But no updated forecasting from A2M translates into ongoing uncertainty for Synlait, whereas it is not necessarily the same level of uncertainty for A2M - the information flows one way. I still expect a Q3 update from A2M in first or second week April.

What is definite is that the continued China label growth is consistent with strong direct IF exports to China out of Lyttleton - so it's good to have some further confirmation of what the port data shows.