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14:12
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Originally posted by NunoGomes
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Morgan’s got their own axe to grind being one of the most active traders in the market for A2M on a daily basis with a position north of $10 and having lost both on Call and put option. I think their market intelligence gathering is a bit slow. Inventory’s been an issue but is being addressed. I think they know the issue here is not about Daigou recovery as we all know the travel hasn’t been restored. The core issue here is whether Daigou has bottomed and that will give you a bottom line scenario on ANZ IF sales. And I think it has bottomed with Daigou shops seems to be getting 50% of their sales compared to peak pretty consistently over the last a few months. It’s worth noting MorganS is one of the main backers on Feihe at HK market..... Sounds they’re doing hedging? Feihe’s had a fantastic year but their main market lies in tier 3-5 cities. I did a bit research on Feihe and their books look extremely dodgy if not down right rediculous. Revenue 18.5b CNY NPAT 7.4b CNY percentage wise higher than MICROSOFT Google & Facebook while PE is only being traded at 26/27. What a dairy company . Do you believe it? Feihe has a dark history of cooking the books under their “ front business” listed in the US under the name of American Dairy and got delisted from the US market due to book cooking. Feihe claimed his main logistic distributor is 3rd party whilst it is actually 100% controlled by Feihe by a executive and not audited by a reputable global accounting firm but by a local provincial small firm that has a pretty sour reputation even in China. You would think as a supplier to Feihe , their main farm gate milk supplier would have a stellar run as well similar to SM1? No , their main supplier YuanShen Tai farm’s revenue’s been flat and even in reverse. I would take the dominant market share claim from Feihe with a big pinch of salt. And back home my friends in Tier 1 & 2 cities don’t even rate Feihe. It’s A2 , Aptamil and other imported brands.
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Great post Nuno,thanks for everything you post in here,you seem to have access to really good intel and in- depth knowledge,nice to have a bit of analysis rather than the 'IMO' or 'join the dots' etc,
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