A2M

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$6.25 the a2 milk company limited

Why is there such large swings month to month?

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qqkazzoo

47 Posts.

25/06/21

15:04

Post #: 54075061

Originally posted by werdplaya58: ↑
Infant formula exports from Lyttleton port to China in May 2021 were released today. In short, they are positive for A2M.

In my previous exports post, I suggested that the lower-than-trend exports in March and April 2021 were likely to allow for a running down of inventory built up in late 2020 / early 2021 (see the large spikes around that period). I then said that "future exports data for May and June 2021 may give some indication as to whether there is too much or too little inventory in the MBS channel relative to demand."

The chart shows that for May 2021, there has been a clear uptick and return to the uptrend in export levels. This is also consistent with the increase in MBS store footprint that I flagged earlier this week. Here is a broader comparison of year-on-year export figures (Gross Weight of IF exports in tonnes):

FY20
FY21 % change
1 Jul-19 678,700 Jul-20 925,296 +36%
2 Aug-19 953,543 Aug-20 1,720,760 +80%
3 Sep-19 790,428 Sep-20 728,040 -8%
4 Oct-19 1,042,005 Oct-20 1,869,290 +79%
5 Nov-19 743,984 Nov-20 3,222,354 +333%
6 Dec-19 785,545 Dec-20 3,139,863 +300%
7 Jan-20 1,022,236 Jan-21 687,855 -33%
8 Feb-20 763,869 Feb-21 2,714,391 +255%
9 Mar-20 3,598,948 Mar-21 1,545,235 -57%
10 Apr-20 1,666,802 Apr-21 1,584,249 -5%
11 May-20 1,093,894 May-21 2,127,740 +95%
12 Jun-20 2,094,867 Jun-21 TBA TBA
13

14 FY20 Total 15,234,821 FY21 Total
(to date) 20,265,073 +33%

FY20 contained a huge increase in China label exports during the early stages of the pandemic (at which point the SP to $20). But exports for FY21 are already 33% higher than during FY20 and there is still another month to go. It looks like they are still on track to be around 50% higher for the whole year.

Edit: it is probably no coincidence that the SP has bounced today.
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Why is there such large swings month to month?

A2M Price at posting: $6.28 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held

1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last $6.25		Change 0.510(8.89%)		Mkt cap ! $4.525B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$6.24	$6.77	$6.05	$29.65M	4.654M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	152106	$6.56

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$6.00	370	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	176	6.500
1	78	6.370
1	620	6.300
1	158	6.250
2	1430	6.240

Price($)	Vol.	No.
6.000	370	1
6.130	800	1
6.180	2000	1
6.200	9360	3
6.230	90	1

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A2M (ASX) Chart

Why is there such large swings month to month?

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		FY20		FY21	% change
1	Jul-19	678,700	Jul-20	925,296	+36%
2	Aug-19	953,543	Aug-20	1,720,760	+80%
3	Sep-19	790,428	Sep-20	728,040	-8%
4	Oct-19	1,042,005	Oct-20	1,869,290	+79%
5	Nov-19	743,984	Nov-20	3,222,354	+333%
6	Dec-19	785,545	Dec-20	3,139,863	+300%
7	Jan-20	1,022,236	Jan-21	687,855	-33%
8	Feb-20	763,869	Feb-21	2,714,391	+255%
9	Mar-20	3,598,948	Mar-21	1,545,235	-57%
10	Apr-20	1,666,802	Apr-21	1,584,249	-5%
11	May-20	1,093,894	May-21	2,127,740	+95%
12	Jun-20	2,094,867	Jun-21	TBA	TBA
13
14	FY20 Total	15,234,821	FY21 Total (to date)	20,265,073	+33%

Why is there such large swings month to month?

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