RoyBoy I am very happy to help. First International shares...I managed some of the biggest International Super Funds in Australia ..with Colonial Mutual I managed the US portfolio...with Colonial Mutual I was the Fund Manager in charge of all International Investment for that Super Fund and also in charge of the International super for BHP and Rio Tinto...so I have some experience in International Markets ...I then was a leading research Manager and a Master Stockbroker in Australia ..I tell you this so you know where I am coming from..I'm not a novice... but I still despite intensive analysis ..Make Mistakes ...so I am very human!! You are interested in Technical analysis ...I use Technical Analysis in conjunction with the Macro Analysis and of course Value analysis...Simply ..."I'm careful "where and when I go..I watch the "weather" and I am very particular what "resort" I want to stay at!!!!" Now the US market strongly influences other markets ..and the U.S. charts WORRY ME( when the USA catches a cold the other markets get pneumonia!!!!) ..it looks like all the USA indices are all forming "double tops"...This means a big break may take place in the not too distant future ...not surprising really ..very loose money policies and this drives up the price of paper and goods and services ...now inflation being brought under control with higher interest rates and tighter money policies ..now Fiscal policy through the ..Inflation Reduction Act ..is putting putting money into specific sectors ..namely Batteries ...and NVX appears it will be a beneficiary as previously discussed...so we have a resilient US economy and values in the the market are far from being cheap...the main index the S&P 500 is on a Price Earnings multiple 23.46x...the Median PEx is about 15x so bluntly the market is offering very very few bargains ...not to say the market won't rotate from overvalued sectors to cheaper sectors ...but can this take place as a rolling readjustment ...yes that's what's been happening....but the Technical Picture of the possible Double Top Formation forming points that very possibility we are very close to the top in the USA markets ......This suggests the USA is Toppy and Risky ..almost 5 trillion dollars are sitting on the side lines getting 5% with little risk against a market valued on a PE basis at 50% up from the longer term Median value of 15x....it says a lot...many people are simply waving a red flag and have adjusted investment for a relatively lower risk profile. At this time ..Warren Buffet a great historic Value investor taught by Ben Graham ( two investors to study) has US$150 billion in cash...the highest cash levels that he has almost ever had ie 20% cash in his portfolios in Berkshire Hathaway...just no value investments that are interesting to him....so it's a sort of red flag that says maybe we could get a correction in the near future ..how much ..well it wouldn't surprises me if the US market pulled back 20% or even more. Remember China is a big player in world markets and is slowing ..clear signs of a slow down strongly impacted by the major correction in their property markets....very mixed picture out there ..it always is ..that's why I always go back to Value and Price ..Prices are high in the USA and there are little opportunities to buy anything undervalued at the big end of the markets in the USA....perhaps there will be safer times in the future to go fishing... investing is a very personal business.
If it helps I am holding ..mostly cash and short term Bonds ( for two years) ...and have been "very liquid "for the past year...80% plus ..being happier to radically reduce my risk profile in the face of a pretty fully valued Stock Markets in the USA and a very risky technical picture evolving in the USA Long Term Charts...I've Never liked September and October for StockMarkets. I hope this Helps RoyBoy. All the Best to All
NVX Price at posting:
$1.01 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)