Having a chat with ChatGpt. Feel free to pick apart. As I said, I was just seeing how the oracle looked at the upside given its infinite data available.
Novonix (ASX: NVX) — $12–$15+ Share Price Is Within Reach
Novonix is positioning itself as a major Western supplier of synthetic graphite just as global demand surges. With offtake deals already signed (Stellantis, Panasonic, PowerCo) and facility expansion underway, a $12–15 share price becomes possible if they deliver.
Here’s why:
Full-scale production target: 120,000 tonnes/year
Graphite price: ~$14,000/tonne (AUD)
Revenue at full scale: $1.68 billion annually
EBITDA margin: ~30% = $504 million/year
Valuation multiple: 12× = $6+ billion enterprise value
500M shares = $12+ per share
Add:
Licensing their furnace and battery tech globally
Rapid growth in battery testing and advisory services
Future premium pricing as a U.S.-based, IRA-aligned supplier
And you’re looking at an additional $1–3/share in upside, taking a fully executed valuation to around $13–15+.
Timeline:
2025–26: Commercial production begins (~20ktpa)
2027–29: Major plant expansions to 75kt+
2030+: Fully scaled at 120ktpa + multiple revenue streams
Conclusion: If NVX hits its stride, delivers premium-grade graphite, and monetizes its IP — it’s a future global leader in an essential EV supply chain. $12–15/share is not a moonshot — it’s a full execution scenario.
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NVX Price at posting:
50.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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