@por77w I base thatt on Chris saying that they would announce the new greenfield site by the end of the year. He has since used language like ‘later this year or early next year’. I’ve dug up a couple of interviews (links below) from last month that state in the ‘next few months’ – that’s the best I’m going to find for now. So, I say by the end of the year which is only 6 weeks away.
Yes, site selection and offtake agreement aren’t the same thing, but, the board is too experienced to start a billion dollar project without customers locked in. Chris has even said they are talking to offtake partners to assist with funding the build (ref afr link below among other places). For me the evidence that an agreement has already been prepared and is just undergoing final reviews and alignment with DoE and other stakeholder agreements is too strong to ignore.
I believe at least one major announcement will happen this year. And if one announcement is made the other(s) are a foregone conclusion. e.g. if they announce the offtake partner first, the site has already been selected because that would be a major diligence check for any offtake partner, obviously.
Also, see below to understand that a letter of commitment was signed by one or more offtake partners prior to July this year.
From the DoE Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA) Number: DE-FOA-0002678 FOA Type: Amendment 000003. Page 22 – the requirements section – states that:
And again in criterion 2: of the application review with a weighting of 30%(!):
Given NVX was awarded the LARGEST anode material grant, its reasonable to assume that their business plan was decent (to say the least) and they had secured REQUIRED letter(s) of commitment with one or more offtake partners. A letter of commitment (at a minimum) is a formal and binding agreement, its not an MoU or HoA.
In summary, they’ve said they want to announce by around the end of the year. I’m allowing 6 or so weeks for the first announcement at the latest, but it could definitely be sooner.
Here’s some links
https://www. a u s b i z .com.au/media/novonix-demand-picture-clearer-than-ever-?videoId=25019 (at 3min)
Will announce a site for the new location in the “next few months” with the goal of bringing the first 30kt of production online in 2025.
https://www.af r.com/companies/energy/novonix-in-funding-talks-for-expansion-plans-20221025-p5bsqm
Paywalled but he talks about finance options here.
Bonus announcement possible soonish – successful commissioning of Riverside Gen 3a furnaces
Quote from Danny in mid Oct “We will finally begin installingthe new modifications for the Gen 3a furnaces at NRS with expectations to begintesting the first week of November.”
(20min delay)