@flurbius.
IMO the situation has only improved from 18 month, 12 months and 6 months ago. You'll have to do the maths and make your own decisions.
My best guess as to why we missed some targets and big announcements is possibly because of Herbert Diess tbh
Everybody feel free to vehemently disagree with me, but in a nutshell I believe something like this:
- Herbert Diess stepped down as VW CEO late in 2022 thus setting off an unfortunate chain of events.
- Oliver Blume took over as CEO of VW but wanted 6 months to find his feet before finalising any big decisions (NVX was supposed to confirm VW as one of two major offtakers from greenfield #1 in late 2022)
- Doug Ford and Justin Trudeau threw a spanner in the works when they threw CDN$13billion (yes you read that right) of subsidies at VW which caused them to move their North American plant from one of the US states to Ontario.
- VWs plant only comes online in 2027.
- While NVX are pretty organised, they were somewhat blind-sighted by this late change and have been scrambling ever since. Remember Greenfield #1 wasn't intended to be dedicated to only one tier 1, and they need to co-locate smartly with access to labour, cheap and green power, supply routes etc etc. DOE loand and grants would be for a US factory.
- Novonix are still working on several big north american deals. For example many GM EVs are quite likely to contain NVX anode (thanks Dan Ackerson) and while they've announced they will have enough materials for 1 million EVs in 2030, they've publicly secured bugger all local anode.
Anyway, the SP could easily drop more before good news arrives, so good luck with whatever you choose to do.
NVX has done an extraordinary amount of ground work to overcome the inertia which plagues many young companies, so personally I'm not going to sell a share now, when I think they are about to start gathering solid momentum, helped, of course by beautiful tailwinds.
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