1. The Australian 4.8.22
Heading
The Australian 4.8.22
Heading"Russian invasion adds new layer to supply crisis"
"Alex Dorsch from Chalice Mining (ASX:CHN), which last year announced its Julimar nickel, copper and PGE deposit 70km north of Perth was the largest nickel sulphide discovery in 20 years, says sanctions and boycotts against Russia will add to a looming supply crisis that should push nickel prices higher.
Russia is a bit of an elephant in the room at Diggers. It has been responsible for an inflationary environment that has added significantly to energy costs, but also provided steam for higher prices of the stuff companies are currently digging for like nickel and copper.
You know, maybe no one wants to look like a war profiteer …
But Russia’s Norilsk produces around 16% of all class 1 nickel sulphide supply and dominates global resources for nickel sulphides, as well as 40% of palladium.
'It’s the world’s largest nickel sulphide resource by a long, long way even compared to very large accumulations like Jinchuan, Sudbury, the Agnew-Wiluna Nickel West operation? It is enormous, right?' Dorsch said on the sidelines of the conference.
'So that is the elephant in the room per se that Russia has the nickel metal in the ground, and it has the very large mining complex or number of very large mining complexes to potentially feed the nickel that we need. But obviously, there’s geopolitical forces at play there.
I would say the prospect of finding 60 more mines given that our discovery is the largest one in 20 years … you get to understanding how unrealistic it is to think that the world is even capable of finding anywhere near enough metal for decarbonisation.'
Dorsch says Chinese-backed Indonesian nickel laterite supplies can fill a gap globally, but are unlikely to find favour with Western battery and carmakers who want sustainable nickel supply, with Russia quickly looking challenged from an ESG perspective as well.
'Will it be acceptable for Western battery and auto manufacturers?' he asked.
'My impression is that it’s not, so without really the Indonesian supply, without the Russian supply, we can foresee the price going again, very, very high, like what we saw in the LME when the LME effectively shut down back in March.
'And we see there’s going to be massive shortfalls of class 1 or battery grade nickel' ".
2.Yes, BSX needs to buy nickel for its refinery, as its Vietnam- owned mines are not sufficient.
(Let's see, also, how big Chim Van's Ni resource will be. There are, obviously, synergies for it to supply BSX, at reasonable prices, or a profit share in Chim Van.
A successful, large BSX Ni refinery is a huge win for Vietnam, & VinFast's EV aspirations: win, win, win for all 3).
BSX also has promising interests in WA & Canadian Ni mines- price of nickel rises strongly, so does the SP of BSX etc.
If Ni prices rise strongly, the value-added Ni EV battery products, from BSX's refinery, will rise also- but by a greater, % amount.
The price of Ni would have to rise astronomically, before NCM batteries (superior in power, & km range) become uncompetitive with other non-Ni EV battery technologies.
Furthermore, "to save the planet", we may have to simply accept that EV's become, relative to ICE cars, relatively expensive (&/or be subsidised by govts., to lower the price for the public). The UN etc. is very unlikely to retreat from decarbonisation policies.
I accept, however, low km range EV's, with much less power, but MUCH cheaper, may become more popular with many (Tesla is now making a cheaper, "inferior" non NCM battery EV).
