The IRA is key for mine. Here's the BSX value proposition as I...

The IRA is key for mine. Here's the BSX value proposition as I see it, and I'd appreciate feedback.

'If VinFast customers apply for a $7,500 federal tax credit under the applicable IRC 30D requirement and are denied by the IRS for reasons not attributable to the customer, VinFast will provide the customer with a $7,500 purchase price rebate (or similar rebate) on their VinFast vehicle purchase. VinFast models manufactured in the U.S. will meet the requirements of tax incentives.'

VinFast has committed to the USD $7,500 purchase price rebate, should the customer not be eligible due to vehicle manufacturing, which is a significant cut in this environment. Assuming VinFast take 5% of the USA market, that would be an unnecessary COST of USD $375mn a year. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will likely play a role in determining the partnership structure between BSX and any partners. See the below slide from the BSX presentation at New Metals.



Note the hurdle rate at 40% for achieving the USD $7,500 tax credit. Navigating the IRA will rely on BSX feedstock sourcing from FTA countries (like Australia, Canada, South America), with the balance sourced from the BPNM or other inputs.

There are still risks the IRA poses BSX if it were unable to secure third-party feedstock from FTA countries. This seems unlikely, though. In the early days of operation, BSX could theoretically achieve scale by sending 100% of its BPNM nickel feed to a NA/FTA refinery as part of the 40% processing rate. There's some complexity to that, of course, and I'd appreciate any color anyone here can add to how this strategy materializes.

BSX to me is an impressive value proposition for VinFast, who can successfully scale operations for it's domestic, SE Asia, and U.S expansion from one refinery in Son La, a mere 100km from it's Hải Phòng base of operations. It's hard to see it not utilized, short of VinFast suspending its NA expansion - an unlikely measure given the USD $1.2bn of incentives provided to VinFast from the State of North Carolina. Given VinFast has targeted 2026 as peak operations, the timing is fortuitous.

Fascinating to see how the partnerships are structured.

Jez