Honestly I think it's purely a waiting game for the next 4 months, when the US election will be held. If Trump wins the IRA act could potentially be pulled, climate change initiatives abandoned and there could be an escalation of the trade war with China in my opinion. But that's just going by past form and it didn't slow BSX down last time he held the Presidency. Absent of major developments with Vietnamese officials pushing through stalled approvals and things like exploration licences, which we have applied for a long time ago, and also the new incentive scheme for foreign investment being launched then partners might maintain the wait and see approach. In 4 months the world could be very different.
Samsung would be my partner of choice for the refinery and it is reassuring to see they made the decision to increase their annual investment in Vietnam a few months ago. They have invested in Canada Nickel too, who are obviously in our orbit seeing as BSX sought to shore up supply of green nickel sulphides from them by buying another mine late last year, no idea what else has been discussed with them, and Samsung, behind closed doors. At the end of the day BSX has spent a lot of funds on researching and perfecting the process for manufacturing green PCAM which is something Canada Nickel hasn't done and I seem to recall the MD briefly mentioning something along the lines of the reason we decided to build the refinery in Vietnam instead of Canada. There is substantial intellectual capital in the pilot plant and design for the refinery. Of course the IRA subsidies currently make manufacturing in Canada more attractive than without them but they do appear to have decent resources to exploit there.
If it is going to take another 2 years or more before necessary approvals and licences are progressed in Vietnam then who would object to building our first refinery in Canada and advancing the Vietnam project when they're more ready for it? They're not quite over the leadership upheavals in Vietnam as one of the top positions remains unfilled and advancing age might require another to step down at some stage not too far in the future. There's much going on in Vietnam and the world that would make a wait and see approach seem prudent so that's what I'm expecting until November at least. So the next move, in answer to your question, and only in my opinion, will likely be a capital raise before November to keep the lights on, perhaps an extension of the option to buy the mine in Canada too.
BSX Price at posting:
4.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
