short term is like 2026 and some have hinted 2028.
not so short 2028.
All depends on jhina and its ability to fix the property debt crisis issues.
Just do some scenarios: What if the debt crisis issues affect 400m-600m jhineses how long will it take the govt to fix the problem.
I assume around 400m-500m jhineses are affected.....that means their property ie. was worth $1m, but now only worth 500k-700k depends on the cities. Now, add the dilemma their income have been reduced. From ie.100k a year to now 50k-80k again depends on city. So on less income, these 400m-500m jhinese have to still repay 1m in loan. Remember jhina has a very large population of middle class....but now their discretionary spending is like zero. EVs sale are still increasing but at a decreasing rate thanks to the population of jhinese what work and is part of the communist party. Emporer Xi needs to encourage property to be completed so that the owners can start to repay back their mortgage. Then he needs to encourage investment back into the property market so that price can rise again.... reduce interest rate and less stringent regulations for borrowers. Property demand increase will increase property price....that would then allow those 400m-500m jhineses to exit the market at a smaller loss. Those exiting the property market can then rebuild their lives again and have discretionary income again to buy EVs. How long will that take....no one knows. Dont count on usa.....they fixed on CBI vehicles and their oversized 4x4 Ford that does not fix into a normal parking lot. Crazy, some ozie are importing those trucks into Australia and not the EV lighting version.
Europe in a recession and war. But they still way ahead of Australia in its planning and deployment of green energy and less carbon.
For example: UK have started to upgrade their electricity grid so that it can handle the higher current when all the millions of future EVS are connected to the grid .
What has Australia done.... well in Victoria the govt have signed the contract to build a tunnel from Cheltenham to Werribee......as that is more important than preparing to go green and reduce carbon.
So, the only support for EVs and Li is jhina and how fast it can fix and recover from their property debt crisis.
BSX Price at posting:
6.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
