Bell Potter update
some snips
"Remarkable response rate ~5x higher than historical levels
IMM have released exceptional initial data from the single-arm cohort of the Phase 2b
trial in first-line head & neck squamous cell carcinoma (1L HNSCC). Data was from 26
evaluable patients with CPS<1, who were treated with Efti + pembrolizumab. The
clear standout is a remarkable 27% of patients (=7/26) achieved an Overall
Response Rate (ORR), meaning their tumour(s) shrank by at least 30%. To put this
into context, first-line pembro monotherapy is not approved for these patients as they
historically only achieve a meagre ORR of ~5%. Hence this data indicates patients are
achieving a ~5-fold higher rate of tumour response when Efti is added to pembro
compared to historical results in a similar patient group (27% vs. 5%). Even if we
assume the remaining 7 subjects still to be evaluated do not achieve a response, the
ORR would be 21% (=7/33), or ~4x the historical rate of ~5% for pembro monotherapy"
"Investment view: Maintain BUY (spec.); $0.80 valuation
These exceptional results further exemplify Efti’s ability to boost the immune system
and enhance responses to PD-1 immunotherapy, even in patients with low/no PD-L1
expression. Our confidence in a positive Part A read out is further increased off the
back of this data. We of course acknowledge the limitations but necessity of cross-trial
comparisons for single-arm data readouts, and this is why we are particularly excited
for the upcoming readout from Cohort A of this Phase 2b trial. Cohort A will be the first
randomised head-to-head data of Efti + pembro against pembro alone. The first data
from Cohort A, including the ORR primary endpoint, is expected in the current Q2
quarter, a major near-term catalyst for IMM. We have increased our PoS (%)
assumptions in 1L HNSCC after this data release. We maintain our Buy (speculative)
recommendation and increase our valuation to $0.80 (from $0.65)"
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