Hey Joel, a few things I picked up during the interview with the proper time to sit down and really think:
Exploration drive from Wyoming to Rosewell which is 2.6km long... a 'huge drive' and as Nic mentioned, it was a very bold move considering the company was still well off pressing the button on the Tommi extension... in 2020, over 2 years before they finally got the permitting fully signed off.
Let alone the fact that it was a huge investment and hence, sunken cost which clearly the market does not yet give a hoot about.
"we had no idea from a reserve perspective, whether we would have a reserve, we thought we would.... we are very confident on ourselves geologically."
Yes, they took a big risk, but I do respect that they backed themselves and... it has obviously proven to be the correct decision.
He was very.... confident about the ore that is going to be coming into the plant in the next 2 years ("80m @9 g/t - we are going to mine that puppy)..."it's going to be phenomenal."
"through Feb we will update that reserve" - as this was recorded in late Jan.
I also liked the part where there were genuine questions about whether Tommi would be finished back in 2014 with the POG crashing, (they had run the numbers at $1450). Yet within 3 years, had paid off the $116m.
The discussion around the Tommi expansion costs and progress was great, but I would really like to see that articulated in the next company presentation.
'Phase 1' - Big spend hump over the next 2 quarters (hence the debt facility) with most of the spend finishing in Sept Q. They plan to draw it late March/early April. Then 'Phase 2 is the highway movement & increasing the throughput of the plant... BUT.... I am pretty sure this has never been discussed in anything I have heard, but... Nic implied that the highway movement timing is very fluid, due to a range of things -
* tender prices - "what that looks like"
* "the grades we get out of Roswell" "what they look like" "sequencing"
* "engineering and lead time procurement for the throughput expansion"
--> only months difference if things change a little...
or do we wait, build some cash then progress it. "I don't know, we will wait and see".
Guidance for FY25 looks be around 80k (which hopefully, is a continuation of ALKs conservative approach to guidance).
At less costs that this year... with grades approx 20-30% higher than the existing Tommi operations. "makes a difference".
"If we go through high grades bits (of Roswell) it could be higher than that"
I really.. liked the part about their internal modelling of the grades/resource and... how Nic basically says, we just don't pump the numbers like perhaps other companies do. (It's that's conservative approach is what continues to build my confidence in the team and assets, for me).
Come 2026 - production profile north of 100k p.a.
"At the end of 2025 we want to be running at 1.5mtpa or more on oxide through that mill and putting as much Roswell material in as we can as possible because it's higher grade, versus the open cut because obviously you get more more ounces, but lower grades" whilst also stockpiling low grade material.
Really worth listening from the 20-34m mark (for that that only want snippet of the key info discussed with a focus on Tommi)
Boda/Kai is discussed from the 34m mark onwards - again, damn interesting.
Spend on Boda/Kai now... close to $55m now (A good investment, but... damn, it's a hard to be a serious explorer!).
Scoping study - late April (ideally).
Lots to ponder, but.. I struggle to find a better company on the ASX that is self funding with gold and have a heavy copper exposure.
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