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    Nothing can be ruled out - a big month ahead with more US data on unemployment, Jackson Hole central bank conference and Fed meeting mid September. If the new unemployment rate data spikes up again (just before the Fed meeting) that will be bad news for the US which may indicate a hard landing and a Fed 50bp rate cut which may lead to a big fall in the sharemarket. But the unemployment rate may also go down and sharemarket may go up.

    No one knows how it will all play out and that tip sheet that I think you are referring to does not have a great record. They obviously believe the unemployment rate will spike up again and the Fed will drop rates by 50bp (ie a panic reaction) leading to a big drop in the sharemarket which will confirm the Fed got it wrong big time (again and again).


 
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