As per the article I read on the net this morning Clawback is unlikely as the demand is unreal: Clawback was there in case of not much demand.The Feds who are way behind in polls as of this morning news poll have to be kamikaze pilots to squeeze the hell out of Medibank Final price. So with all my investment experience and the info available to date I foresee the following outcomes for MPL
1. No 20% Clawback for broker Firm Clients as they were already screwed to the core in Scalebacks and also we are Voters too, they know that.
2. I still think the Final price would be very close to or at most $2 not $2.10 as predicted by The Australian
3. Say Medibank is valued a Hypothetical $5.2 Bil Valuation at the Final price. The split I believe would be $1.5 Bil for Broker firm, $1.7 Bil for Retail , and $2 Bil for Instos. That's a rough split of 61.5% to voters and 38.5 % to Instos. So in retail we can expect say anything up to $3 k or $4k is 100% allotment, and then scale backs of 75% to 80% or even slightly more for people who didn't register or who are not policy holders.
4. Next Tuesday when MPL lists I expect a closing price of around $2.35 minimum and if the euphoria translates into real rush who knows any price up to or more than even $2.50 which is unlikely IMO. I think the $2.35 mark is extremely likely unless something dramatic happens between now and next Tue. Cheers.
Who knows I could be wrong on all 4 forints here, but at least I am sticking my neck out a week before the real thing. So fire away boys what do you think a week from the open on these 4 points I made here. pete, Katavi, dimaz, JG, hovan and all other mates fire away your responses. Cheers. Remember you don't have to agree with me, be honest and express your views. Cheers.
