I think there will be a clawback on the broker element. May not be 20%, but I would have thought 10%+.
Bottom line is that the broker applications were clearly to game the market with lots of very large orders.
I have to disagree with your assertion that the clawback was in the case of a poor showing - defies logic in my view. The whole point was to be able to allocate a little more to the mums and pops, and in particular to the policy holders, who effectively supply the profits for the business in the first place.
I'd expect policy holders to get about 20/25% above non holders. My call is $2B or more for retail investors. But I'm often wrong. The higher the % is for retail, then the more the the after market will perform.
Whichever way it ends up it is an interesting float for sure.
