Medibank Broker Firm Allocations, page-57

Hi Nani,
Thanks for article above.
I have shown below the first attempt at a long range forecast. Very interesting.

9.50am - A theory on why Medibank's share price could double in five years​

By now, we’ve all read our fair share of Medibank speculation. However, amid the torrent of free advice going around at the moment, this note from firm 100Doors caught our eye.
The group claims that under a certain set of justifiable conditions, Medibank’s considered $2-per-share stock price could double to $4-per-share by 2020. The chart below captures the crux of their calculations.

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There are a few assumptions that we would be remiss not to mention. For starters, 100Doors believes Medibank will see 6 per cent annual revenue growth, which they say is a “comfortable” assumption given the health insurance industry as a whole has seen much higher growth of 8.1 per cent per year over the past five years.
Meanwhile, it also assumes claim costs rise by 5 per cent over the same period. In the past three years, Medibank claims costs have come in at around 6.1 per cent, but 100Doors believes Medibank will be able to negotiate better rates with hospitals as a private entity.
As for its controversial investment revenue, the group attempted to normalise the impact of this by keeping it at $100 million per year. The estimate also excludes buybacks and share dilutions and also assumes that corporate tax rate will remain at 30 per cent.
We’ll keep an eye out for the next note from 100Doors, which looks to be an interesting read as it will consider the impacts of health outbreaks -- like Ebola -- on Medibank’s business.