Q: How many shares am I likely to get under the PolicyHolder Offer (having preregistered)??
Preliminary Answer - for comment:
1. I assume that the overall Medibank Offer will be oversubscribed
2. given 1, then rules are "if over-subscribed, and scaling of Retail Applications is required, then Eligible PolicyHolders who pre-registered can be allocated up to 30% higher than"….some others
3. so I may get up to 30% than some others in Retail Offer
4. I think that 750k preregistrations were received by Comm Govt in total (memory, unchecked)
5. expected total Retail Offer applications would be say HALF of 750k (a guess, as I assume some won't follow through because of either don't like the business, or don't expect to get enough allocation to make it worthwhile, or just get lazy, or don't have $) - lets call it 350k applications.
6. Lets assume Govt allocates HALF of issue to "the public" - good politics is reasoning here (maybe more than half?)
7. Assume Issue price $2
8. So of $5.5B issue, $2.75B of shares are issued to 350k applicants - that would be roughly $8k each.
9. So if some applications are for less than $8k, and if PolicyHolders get %more than some others, maybe it is worthwhile applying for $10k as I may get them.
10. Also very likely to get $4-5k if I applied for that (even if I change some numbers in analysis above).
11. Probably unlikely to get >$10k as govt will scale-back these (to get wide distribution to public).
Open invitation to HC members now - shoot this logic down ( the size of my application cheque depends on it!)
