After a lot of thinking and chatting with real experts including Marcus Paddley this avo, I have decided to go for this. I base my entire argument to invest on the following Facts
1. I can not see the Federal Govt who is lagging behind in polls and with a massively Screwed up Budget : making Voters ( Shareholders ) angry at a time like this. So I can't see them putting a very high price so in the end it will be reasonably priced.
2. It will be so tight particularly for the Instos as they had to meet the S& P Indexation Requrements. They had no option but to buy on open market. That will make sure a steady after market. I reckon the price will go up for sure after the first 3 or 4 days because of the moved on initial selling by little retail sellers.
3. The Govt will make sure as much stock as possible to go to the retail.
4. It is in the sort after healthcare sector and without a doubt by 2016 it will be leaner and meaner than today and possibily will expand into some other areas as well. It has $2 Bil plus cash and absolutely no debt and very low risk compared to general insurers and has major market dominance. Asian and US instos love Australian Healthcare Sector as was obvious with RHC. Most importantly this is the biggest Federal Govt offer after Telstra.
5. Federal govt has its own agenda for this float to be a success as they and the State Governments have hundreds of billions of dollars worth of assets to off load soon via IPO's etc.
6. Cormannator ( Mathias ) announced the IPO 2 hours after the biggest fall in the Dow and brought it forward as well to last wel of Nov. unless he is a Kamakhazi Pilot he must have a plan for this to be a success.
So I am honest enough to put my own views and the reasons for me going in. I know what I am doing and I am not in nappies. Let's see how my reasons would pan out after listing. Cheers
