BBN 3.24% $1.44 baby bunting group limited

I've always admired this company and wanted to own the stock....

  1. 392 Posts.
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    I've always admired this company and wanted to own the stock. However, along with other high quality so-called consumer discretionary stocks formerly with a 30-40 PE (DMP, BRG, ARB, etc.), I've always baulked at the valuation. It looks like I'm finally getting my opportunity to add this great company to my portfolio; in a series small amounts, of course. How BBN is 'consumer discretionary' is a mystery to me. Similar to how ALL, NXT or perhaps REA are considered 'tech companies' by some, I suppose. There's always an overwhelming desire to label companies and put them into a box with a simple description. I can't stand consumer discretionary retail stocks. I think it's a horrible industry to make money in. One step up from the airline industry. Changing fickle tastes and preferences, high overheads, marketing (endless discounts and sales) warehousing of inventory, theft, rent, and low margins. Yuk.

    I am a holder of the CQE (mostly childcare centres) REIT and my research of that stock has often overlapped a little into BBN. Another REIT I hold (HDN) is the landlord for many BBN sites in large format retail stores (the rent is much cheaper there than in a Westfield or Vicinity centre). So, I've kind of skirted around the edges of Baby Bunting, but never really thought I'd get a chance to buy this quality, compounding, growth retailer at a price on a 5+ percent dividend yield. In addition to the historical, and forecasted growth ahead, one of the things l like about BBN is the stable number of shares on issue since 2016.

    I've read a lot about the ongoing government support for childcare centres and shortage of centres. And seen for myself firsthand, both whilst living long-term in China, and also here in Australia, how parents and extended family spend like drunken sailors on newborn children. It's a brilliant industry to invest in, especially when you're investing in the top company in the industry with no nationwide competitor (if you exclude department stores Kmart, Big W, etc.). Akin to Bunnings, just as sergimd wrote above. Not discretionary at all. Which acts as a weak kind of moat.

    I have also recently read somewhere that birth rates in Australia are historically low at the moment. However the immigration Ponzi scheme should keep families and their small children arriving in Australia in good numbers. Well-off parents leave China and emigrate to Australia and Canada precisely because of the ability to have a more comfortable life here. Buying second hand prams, and clothes on Gumtree isn't really in their plans. And I don't see that BBN has a big enough penetration of stores for that to be an issue. It's not like there's Baby Bunting stores scattered around the country like McDonald's cannibalising each other's sales.

    I have only been in a store once -- maybe 12 to 18 months ago. It was well-organised and well-stocked with professional, friendly staff. However to my shock, the assistant told me they did not sell stuffed animals. What the...?! I can't buy a stuffed bear or rabbit at a large specialty baby/kids retail store?! I had expected to see wall-to-wall soft animals, however all they sold were a few battery operated animal toys. I left feeling astounded, a little disappointed, and empty-handed. Hopefully this situation has since changed.

    The market is really brutal at the moment. Quality stocks are being not just marked down, but smashed, with no remorse, at the slightest bad news. I'm the last person to pick the bottom of a stock correctly. I wouldn't be surprised if it falls further. However at the current price, if l hold for 3 to 5 years, I suspect I'll be very happy with the current $2.84 entry point, regardless of what prices Mr. Market offers over the coming months. If the numbers stack up, at some point you've got to pull the trigger otherwise you (and I mean myself, here) might as well delete the stock from your watchlist and stop looking at it. Small nibbles. Nothing crazy. Keeping lots of dry powder. I never thought I'd get a chance to buy BBN at 2.5 year lows...

    Good luck to all holders.
 
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