With the benefit of hindsight, dbrown was correct at $5.00. The...

With the benefit of hindsight, dbrown was correct at $5.00. The shares looked at least superficially over-priced, if just from the crude P/E ratio. They assumed a lot of growth. I feel the same way about Lovisa shares now as I did about Baby Bunting at $5.00. The financial press and self-appointed stock market commentators are pumping Lovisa like there's no tomorrow. I'm sure it's a great company, but I wouldn't go near it at the moment. Buying high P/E stocks rarely ends well when you're paying for expected growth out into the future. You always get the bull case when things are going well and the doom-and-gloom extrapolation of the bear case when all looks bad.

I ignored dbrown's postings at $5.00. To be honest, they annoyed me a little, and I disagreed with many of the points made. Long, constant negative postings about a stock are irritating, but the author seems genuine, well-meaning, and the points are all reasonable and intelligent. I won't be adding him to my extensive "ignored posters" screen any time soon.

If shares in a company halve in price in a short space of time, credit must be given to those who correctly called the decline. BBN shares will need to double just to return to where he was sounding the alarm. Upon going back and re-reading this thread, I have some begrudging respect for the points raised.

I wrote previously that I've always wanted to own BBN. It is a tenant in the HDN large-format retail / daily needs REIT I own. I purchased a small holding of BBN at $2.80, at $2.65 and again at $2.50. And I do mean small. If (probably, "when") the market takes another leg downwards, I will buy more at $2.35 and $2.20, if these levels eventuate. I plan to buy another three or four equal-sized parcels in the next few months. I don't agree that the negative points raised at $5.00 still hold at $2.50. I don't agree that the issues are structual, I think they are cyclical.

BBN is Australia's only national, dedicated baby store network. It's in a defensive retail space. The stock is on a 6% (theoretical) yield with a P/E of 14-15 times. It is no longer priced as a growth stock yet we've only just entered NZ and there is only 4 stores in South Australia, 6 in WA and 1 in Tasmania (Hobart). We are hardly like Domino's with stores every few kilometres. I can accept that inflation will impact costs and our profit margin, but it's temporary, and 10% growth is expected this year. Disappointing February and August 2023 results are a real possibility as is further downside. However it comes down to risk vs. reward. If you aren't prepared to pay $2.60 today for BBN, you're probably never going to buy it. I'm happy to collect a 6% fully-franked dividend, purchase more at lower rates, and wait 12-24 months for a re-rating when, either a) the inflation scare is over; or b) management are seen to be handling the situation better than expected. The market is currently very pessimistic on retail and taking a sell now, ask questions later approach. I expect to be selling at at a 100% profit around $5.00 in the medium term with our EPS somewhat higher, and some P/E multiple expansion into the 20s. I almost hope the share price drops further. It hasn't been this low since just two weeks after the 20th March Covid low. Sure, it could drop another ten or twenty percent from here, but at these levels I am optimistic of getting a great return on my investment

I cannot accept the "low birth rate" argument. People in Australia are having babies, although obviously not at the rates of sub-Saharan Africa. What do people in first world countries with low birth rates do when someone in their family has a baby? They over-purchase the best gear they can find at places like Baby Bunting. Does anyone really believe a family with seven children would be spending any money on many of those later kids? The stuff would be mostly hand-me-downs from the first couple of kids. Furthermore, Australia is taking 200,000 migrants a year (young, working-age, fertile, child-raising age people) who will either have children here and/or bring them with them. No doubt the immigrants will be from countries where larger families are the norm. Migration is both parties' sleight-of-hand trick to artificially raise GDP and keep the real estate, retail, and construction industries happy at the expense of our quality-of-life. I am sure it's how they plan to pay down this obscene national debt.

Similar to many investors, I only like broker opinions when they match my pre-conceived prejudices This from the Market Index site.