Meejohnsy, I have started a new thread to get out of the other one which is a seperate issue, in response to your post...extract... "11/05/08 08:51 (View) meejohnsy Post #: 2856423 In Reply to msg: #2856416 IP: 124.186.xxx.xxx Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: No Stock Held Views: 139" "looks like i missed this one to...114% god dam it ! fatstocks i was concentrating on gda how come i didnt get the heads up on this one or did i miss your earlier reports."
The heads up was in the post below on Sunday the 4th of May. I mentioned (very briefly), Maximus , but it was only a brief mention as part of the explanation behind my "if" factor philosophy, which is the basis of forming my decisions to buy shares in a company. I also include the company's I own shares in, in the voluntary auto signature which I change when I dispose or change my holdings. I recently sold my shares in CUO and MXX to buy into Maximus and changed the auto signature accordingly. Another couple of ways you can check what I am posting about is to click on the user profile "fatstocks" link or use the advanced search link located just below the asx code symbol search box we use, once in the advanced search, put in search by user (poster) and you can search my posts going back to about feb last year I think, but there are too many that would take forever to read ( they took forever to type, lol :). Most companies have some "if" factor but I research and select those that I think have multiple "if " factor triggers as they move through the various exploration stages that are as my research indicates, containing multiple "if" triggers. Once a company reaches $1 to $2 (or the $200m plus market cap) they are still good companies but their multiple "if" value to me has been realised, I usually exit. The % return and risk are both potentially higher in the companies I invest in as their share price and market cap reflects. Maximus has risen last Friday on the announcement of the large iron-ore/Vanadium tonnage target and is entering the first trigger but they are still under their 12 month highs. I have several further triggers identified for Maximus according to my research. Flinders reached the first trigger late last year, Gondwana in January and Mantle a week or so ago. Your time spent concentrating on Gondwana may not have been a waste. They have some samples at the lab and I am hoping they trigger the next "if". Most of the post on the GDA thread below was about Mantle but it was relevant to GDA in explaining the "if" factor. My comments are not advice or recommendations , DYOR etc.
fatstocks Post #: 2825370 Start of thread: IP: 124.148.xxx.xxx Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Stock Held Views: 206
I did a post this morning which contains reference on the MNM thread to Gondwana and thought some of you might like to read about my thoughts on the early "if " factor. There are a few people who put negative posts on Gondwana and I hope the post below helps you with why I am a Gondwana shareholder, cheers fatstocks. An extract from the post .....
"The "if" scenario is of considerable value in identifying potential stocks that can grow their market cap under various scenarios of resource identification and I have invested in many such stocks that hardly anybody else were considering the value of the "if" relationship to the low share price and the future prospects. Some such companies in which I identified the "if" factor and have invested in, illustrate the value in wealth creation by a thorough examination of the "if". It doesn't always of course turn into an increase in the value of the share if the "if" didn't eventuate but in my case, they did.
Some if's that have rewarded me for my "if" research are ( I have since taken the profit and sold.I have put in brackets my "if " entry price) QGC (.19c), CUL (.065)FXRO, CTN ($1),CAL (.43c),APZ,FLX (.06c),GBG (.072c),MPOOA ,RMI (.005),WOR ($2.84) and others. Interestingly with QGC, they were pioneering the coal seam methane in the Surat basin and the critics were thick and fast but to my mind, they were worth investing in because of their "if" factor in what was then, a new energy source that had a lot of potential "if" they could get the extraction worked out which they have done. I learnt a lot watching and reading their regular reports to the asx about their drilling. I expect that this knowledge will assist me in the progress Mantle makes "if" they prove up a CSM resource worth something. Of course there have been "if" stocks that never moved and also went down and that's the nature of the "if" stocks, the concept is though, that the two thirds go up, one third go down and the exit costs for the one's that go down are about a third of the initial entry price but the two thirds that go up, do so by generally 100%, 200% and more by securing a holding in the company at "if" prices rather than buying them when they are "proven". You might notice that some of the prices I entered the above stocks at illustrate how unloved they were when I decided they had the "if" factor. Some that I am currently in and are yet to realise their full "if" potential, but have increased between 150% and much more are FDL and GDA,( I think they have potential for a 4 fold or more increase still to take place). Some companies with the "if" value I have invested in that haven't increased in share price (much) yet but contain the "if" factor are MNM ( up only 25% atm) and MXR ( up only7%) . I am running the ruler over about 20 other companies for their "if" value at the moment.I expect that I will invest in about a third of them, a third of those will go down by a third and two thirds could go up as previously mentioned. I hope that explains why I think the "if" factor is well and truly worth discussing. I have been following the asx since the 70's and have actively traded for about 10 to 15 years in that period. My trading style has improved considerably over the years and if you read some of my posts on the FDL and GDA threads you can see I am tolerant of other people's opinion, I am very much into research and the "if " factor and I am happy to share my thoughts. Mantle has good "if" prospects in coal, CSM and phosphate which I will continue to research and comment about. I consider their gold prospects undervalued and further advanced from the "if" scenario.I consider their coal prospects have more than an "if" factor but they have a lot of infrastructure to set up to sell the coal particularly at the port of Cairns. If anyone has confidence in MAK for their phosphate, an investment in MNM for the same, is in the "if" category but there is no price factored in to the MNM share price as yet and that's why I have become a shareholder. I see potential for about a 5 fold increase in MNM on the phosphate potential alone "if" they can identify a resource. "if" that tonnage and quality exceeds that eventually of MAK's, over time, I see a proportional increase in MNM sp. That will be perceived as a ramp but I see it as a legitimate comment about the fundamental "if" factor. Gondwana is probably the cheapest entry into a company on the asx with "if". Flinders has a more recognised "if" as they work towards identifying the iron-ore in tenement 882 and explore for diamonds ( there's huge "if" factor in the diamond potential value if they find the source of the diamonds they are increasing their exploration data on). I don't see much "if" value in MNM's uranium even if they identify a massive resource, due to the current state and federal government anti-uranium policies. I was reading the links posted yesterday by Slappi I think it was , to some articles on world demand for crops and phosphate and these articles have firmed up my ideas about the potential "if" value to MNM in moving towards a rapid exploration of the MNM phosphate targets. I will be contacting head office and discussing my thoughts on this. There are three main commodities I see that have growth for many years to come; i.e., energy, food and the materials sector. Mantle are targeting all three of those. We live in a changing world and the companies that target resources that are demand driven will be the one's to invest in, in my opinion.
I am currently viewing a very interesting link which puts into perspective the changing world we live in. There are some amazing statistics relating to China,India and America.
cheers and I wish everyone a successful week on the asx , fatstocks. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cheers Fatstocks, [email protected] Before acting on any of the information you read and making any financial or investment decisions, you should always consult your advisor(s) or other relevant professional experts. These comments are for discussion purposes only and are not advice or recommendations. Comments may have typos and spell check is not used. Declaration: I have interests in Flinders Mining,Gondwana, Maximus and Mantle Mining.
MXR Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
