Here's an update of my favourite indices since the start of this thread. The chart is daily CFDs.
DAX: If you picked the DAX for a rise, then you lost badly, but if you shorted it, then you did well. So I wonder how the guys at HML are doing since they predicted big rises? Maybe this is the low, and a great time to buy? My DAX chart (see second chart below) shows the uptrend from December (green line) is over and now in a downtrend, but it might be at the bottom of a longer-term uptrend (thin black line channel).
CHINA A50: This is still the winner by a long way, but you had to tolerate wild swings of over 3%.
DJIA: Rising smoothly at the moment. People keep panicking about the rises, thinking it will collapse, but it keeps rising.
ASX200: This has been ranging for two months. But you would think a breakout one way or the other should happen soon. The trouble is that even though commodities are rising for the miners, the banks keep getting hit with bad news. Maybe earnings reports this week will decide things?
INDIA NIFTY: Rising smoothly at the moment. If you picked it for a rise, then you had to tolerate a 2% fall early on. But that's an opportunity to average in at a lower price if you were sure it would rise. Of course, if you were sure, then why wasn't the rest of the market sure, i.e. why did it fall 2% in the first place? That brings me to the two issues I've been having with this approach:
I've mostly been a penny stock day trader, so I find it hard to get past daily action. If I see a fall, I think sentiment must be bad and it will continue falling when it's really just taking a breather or there's some profit taking. It's hard for me to think in terms of say the next four months.
The media generally doesn't help because the narrative they present goes with what's happening - they make falls sound disastrous, and they make rises sound like the land of milk and honey, or they call a top too soon. They are all over the place. So we need to find a reliable source of info, or we need to do in-depth research ourselves, which is too complex because it requires macro and micro analysis.
