Very interesting project and something I've been thinking about in a much more intuitive way rather than through research as you attempted.
I think there's something to this, risky of course though in many ways quite simple. Especially when the trend is strong.
I think it would be quite difficult to pick the start of a strong trend through FA. Perhaps it is more about risk management and being prepared to take numerous small losses to accurate pick the start of a smallish run in line with the over all trend.
I've been watching the ASX200 for the past month, I'm new to this. There was a recent run of around 100 points that would have suited this strategy.
Not a great signal though perhaps preparing for an end of year rally that finishes above 6000 may be an anchor for looking for an entry with a tight stop and ridding any wave up?
