I have done a bit of research and I have concluded that we are on the verge of an exponential explosion in app downloads. I have managed to estimate the total number of downloads as of now. Here are the numbers:
In order to make the Top 25 of Entertainment apps in the US in the Apple App Store, an app needs to average minimum 10,000 downloads per day, as this chart shows.
However, this chart is collected from December 2013 figures. I saw a chart that had May 2012 figures and that chart showed an app needed approx. 7,500 downloads per day to reach Top 25 in the Entertainment category in the US. So, since I couldn't find any more up-to-date statistics, let's assume that an app in 2017 needs 12,000 downloads per day in order to rank in the top 25 in the Entertainment category in the US.
So, let's say that we discount the downloads since Megastar came onto the App Store up until the day it first listed up until three days ago on the 19th October, when the app suddenly jumped from ranking around 100 to ranking number 6 in the Entertainment Category in the US, where it has remained in the top 10 until this minute.
Extrapolating, we can confidently say that since last Thursday (19 October) our app has been downloaded approx. 48,000 times (12,000 downloads per day X 4 days).
So, using this number, we can say that our app will have been downloaded 480,000 times in the next 40 days.
Furthermore, an app needs to be downloaded approx. 27,000 times to crack the top 50 in the Overall Category in the US (
https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2013/07/how-many-downloads-does-an-app-need-to-get-in-the-top-apps-list/) This is, again, 2013 figures.
It also takes 38,000 downloads per day to crack the top 25 in the Overall Category (
http://www.adweek.com/digital/new-f...s-it-take-to-reach-the-top-of-the-ios-charts/).
This is also backed up by this comment that I found (
https://www.quora.com/How-many-down...100-charts-in-the-app-store-for-each-category):
"Our app was #14 in free Entertainment (US) once last year. That day we had approximately 14,000 downloads. We were also #175th overall according to AppFigures."
The above three numbers look quite accurate as they back each other up and is pretty good for an estimation.
Therefore, I would estimate that because Megastar is currently ranked 104 in the Overall Category in the US and ranked 9 in the Entertainment Category, and using the numbers I wrote about above, I would estimate that Megastar is averaging roughly 15,000 DOWNLOADS PER DAY AS OF TODAY.
So, using this figure, we will been downloaded an additional 105,000 times in the next 7 days!
Now, according to the MSM announcement on 17 October, there were only 300 performers by the end of Heat A and 1,200 performers by the end of Heat B. Heat C has just finished and we have just started heat D which will end at the end of this week.
Now, we can extrapolate to predict how many extra people download the app as a result of each performer sharing their video to their friends. To do this, we can estimate how many downloads it would take to get into the Top 100 Entertainment Category in the US. Using the figure to crack the Top 25 which is 10,000 we can assume that 2,500 downloads per day would get you into the Top 100 Entertainment Category. Because Megastar suddenly jumped from a ranking of 100 to a ranking of 6 merely days after Heat B concluded, we can assume that those additional 900 performers that joined in Heat B contributed to a portion of the additional downloads experienced in that download spike. I would say they contributed 20%. So, if we take 20% and apply it to the spike in number we would get: 0.2 x (10,000 - 2,500) =1,500.
This means that 900 performers motivated 1,500 people to download the app, or, 0.6 downloads for every extra performer that joins.
That leaves us with the other 80% due to organic grow by people seeing the Megastar App on television or youtube or simply seeing it on the app store. Therefore, for every extra performer, we can also expect we can expect 4 times 0.6 which = 2.4.
This means that another 2.4 downloads for every performer.
Combining the two, we get a TOTAL OF APPROX. 3 DOWNLOADS FOR EVERY NEW PERFORMER THAT JOINS MEGASTAR.
If we assume that there will be 50% extra performers heat on heat, that is a total of 3000 performers by the end of Heat E. Which means 3,000 times 2.4 = 7,200.
So add 7,200 to our current download rate which is 15,000 per day and we get apprx. 22,000.
This means that we should be getting a minimum of 22,ooo downloads per day by the end of the Heats.
Now, this number does not include the Android downloads.
So, add on 40% (the number of Apple v Android users is 60/40 ratio) and we get...
...31,000 DOWNLOADS PER DAY!
Which would put us in the top 50 apps in the Overall Category in the United States!
Add onto that figure the iPad figures, and the targeted marketing that will start just before the finals rounds when MSM have indicated they expect the SIGNIFICANT DOWNLOADS TO BEGIN and we could well be on our way to 50,000 downloads per day. Which would mean 1 Million downloads is possible in a period of 20 days.
However, I expect that this figure may well reach a peak of 100,000 downloads per day by early December due to virality and factors that I have not taken into account, such as marketing etc.
As for the share price, I have the following to say:
The RAAS research report stated that if MSM converted 0.8% of 22 million users of the app in FY18 into paying customers, the share price would reach 96 cents. But, if we assume that my figures are correct, we can say that based on 100,000 downloads per day there will be 54 million users of our app. Which means that our share price will be closer to $2.45 by the end of FY 18. But this is very conservative as it does not take into account the other countries such as China, India etc to come onboard and it does not even take into account any country other than the United States!
I could be wrong about some of my figures but I think that it gives us a good estimate and indication of what potential this thing has. In conclusion, this is a ticking timebomb that is set to EXPLODE!!!
