In my view it’s probably a good idea to stand clear during a consolidation. Over my short experience, shares tend to come back on below the pure maths result, where there’s no fundamental change to the company. Who knows what the market will do? A significant portion of the new shares will be escrowed, which might also have an effect.
Anyway, here’s an attempt at the maths involved. This situation is made more complicated by the fact there are essentially three different ‘parcels’ of shares. (I’m going to ignore Options and Performance Rights below.)
There are existing shares of 217,607,664, which will reduce to 38,076,581 post-consolidation. If that were the only event, you might argue the market cap should stay the same so the new share price would simply be current price multiplied by consolidation factor; $0.053 x 5.715 = $0.301, and total value of $11,533,206 (ie, same as before/currently).
However, as you point out, there will also be 45,500,000 shares issued at $0.200, for a value of $9,100,000.00. If THAT were all that was going to happen, you could arguably just add it up and divide by total shares: $20,633,206 / 83,576581 = $0.247.
BUT, there are also 82,764,655 shares being issued to the vendors of digitalBTC. To be honest, I’m not sure what value to ascribe to these. Without babbling on even longer, it can perhaps be argued either way (ie, lumped in with existing shares or lumped in with cap raising shares). Or somewhere in between…
In case you’re not totally bored already, here’s the two outcomes: 1. Treated like existing: ($36,373,212 + $9,100,000) / 166,341,236 (total shares) = 27.3c 2. Treated like cap raising: ($11,533,206 + $25,652,931) / 166,341,236 = 22.4c
But in the end, sentiment seems to matter a helluva lot more than maths.
MEJ Price at posting:
5.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held