i was at the melb roadshow but 618 definitely said more than...

i was at the melb roadshow but 618 definitely said more than what i heard from the back. 618 - was it you who told SP that the announcement is out? haha. that was funny

hey deardrphil, you were there?? why didn't you introduce yourself? or was I too busy harrassing SP? ;-) No, that wasn't me. It was that Asian girl who was sitting near the door who first notified the crowd of the announcement being out. But that was funny though.

oh well, im glad the sp held up, i was expecting a bloodbath and am pleasantly surprised (though abit disappointed coz if it fell to 1.50(!) i would definitely have topped up after hearing the presentation).

Why? the news wasn't that bad! In fact, it may not even be a coincidence that the SP was sold down so badly in the few days leading up to that announcement - bearing in mind we've been sold down a lot more than others (in overall percentage terms relative to where we were before the rout began). That thought crossed my mind before - similar to the trading pattern prior to the Chinguetti production news, but I didn't want to start a full blown argument with SP there and then :)

Sorry to miss the AGM today would have been good to catch up, most questions had already been asked by others, my main focus would have been Labienda did he mention this at all ???

No, it wasn't discussed at all. I spoke to D and various other people about it. AFAIUI, the initial exploratory well is never designed to intersect optimum reservoir. This is because they are often drilled quite far updip of the structure since that will tell you the most about the HC-charge of a reservoir. This is the reason why they drilled M1 so close to the fault line. The fact that it encountered 116m of thin sands is of no concern yet, Labeidna-2 will tell the story. They are optimistic about N'Dor but I think these are contingent wells at best as it currently stands. Chinguetti fix-up and Phase 2, as well as the 2006 Exploration wells (Colin, Flamant, Pelican East, Kibaro and PSC B prospect) will take precedence.

Interesting that SP believes it isn't one large structure, even though we had oil shows in the lower section. If they are separate structures, I wonder what the commercial viability of Mputa-2 is, if at all??

I don't think M2 was ever designed to tell us whether we have one large structure, it would have derisked the concept if it was 'successful' - in the sense that the oil-bearing columns were consistent with those of W1. However, the fact that we have a lateral extension of the reservoir sands in the top section but being water wet, it has demonstrated that the oil is not evenly migrated across the reservoir. The logs will determine whether they case and test M2, or abandon it.

Still, so far we have approximately 60 MBO out of Uganda, assuming the flow testing goes well. That more than doubles HDR's reserves!!! This could increase significantly with Nzizi and Ngambwa, which I assume would be significantly derisked considering they are also sitting on the faulted terrace.

That's my understanding too. They'd be expecting Nzizi and Ngambwa to come in without a doubt given the results that we've had to date there.


In terms of the SP, I am still believing that a development plan going fwd, as well as Guyane farmin, will do wonders. Of course, whether that holds true remains to be seen. Where this is going next is anyone's guess, but if one takes a 2 year timeframe from now, how can one not be optimistic? I know I am... I wouldn't call myself an adoring fan of Simon, but I still think he's taking Hardman in the right direction going fwd.

Cheers,
618