I am not sure. Probably down but keep in mind if these measures deliver results and the spread dissipates combines with the use of hydroxychloroquine / anti biotics and in due course a vaccine maybe there is hope for us.
In short though it is going to be a very rough ride. I did some rough and ready calculations on the possible death toll on an age basis over two years and I figure we are looking at about 246,000 deaths. The issue is not the deaths. The issue is that our hospitals have trouble dealing when there is nothing going on.
If they are hit with waves of people and it is obvious that politicians have blown it in terms of health expenditure then they will not get re-elected.
Meltdown followed by Stampede ?, page-74
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