You would have to say that some of the expected dividend would...

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94 Posts.

06/08/14

14:42

Post #: 13778400
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Originally posted by mowibble ↑

Nanday that is after the shareprice has appreciated to market value plus divi.

So if the market thinks it is only worth 16c right now, and they announce a 3c divi, the price would normally adjust to about 19c until ex date.

But that isn't taking into account the fact that market value right now is still waiting for a lead from the company on the divi. If the company decided to go with a really big divi, market value would probably stay around here and record date value would be 16c+divi.

But if they elect to keep alot of cash and the market feels confident that it is going to be spent on something worthwhile, market value will go up too.

I think it is fair to say that it is still being held back by divi collectors upsizing their position. A big single payoff here on a large position would be a great way to convert a potential capital gain into a tax friendly divi.

Likely the minute they announce the divi, the price will immediately adjust to a value closer to the difference between say the NAV and the divi. Then it would probably peak at NAV (maybe still discounted) before dropping by the value of the divi after ex.

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You would have to say that some of the expected dividend would be factored into the price right now. My guess is the market is expecting 3-4 cents, which IMO will increase the current share price to stabilise around the 17c mark. If the dividend is higher, then it will go higher.

Well done to those that held, I got out a little to early

CFE Price at posting: 15.7¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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