Thank God the Meo board has got some sense. Though suspect MSMN offer may be reduced to 3:1 then 1:1 (they are desperate). Hope MSMN SH sway MSMN board to drop bid – as per their views posted on the AIM – but doubt it. Lets close this chapter once and for all on MSMN and move on on the Meo prospects. Hoping for good news on Beehive soon.
Thought you might be interested on this from the MSMN website, in italics – apologies if you are sick and tired of hearing about MSMN so don’t read it if sick and tired of it: MSMN has held the Murchison tenements since 2014 http://mosmanoilandgas.com/2014-block-offers “Murchison Mosman has been granted an Exploration Permit covering some 517 sq. km. This permit is approximately 100 km north of the existing Petroleum Creek permit.
The Murchison area includes the Blackwater-1 well drilled in 1968 where oil and gas was discovered. In 1970, Bounty Oil Co Ltd drilled a well and in 1985 Petrocorp Limited drilled the Matiri-1 well and found hydrocarbons. There has been no further drilling since the oil price collapse in 1986.
Mosman believes this area has both exploration and appraisal potential based on the existing discovery.”
Yes you are reading it properly So:
Fact 1: No drilling on Murchison since 1986.
Fact 2: MSMN got the tenements in 2014 and appear not to have done any drilling work, hence the SRK report used historical drill/log data (possibly combined with some seismic analysis if any) to come to a view as suspected – a view which was QA’d by a MSMN person which is a conflict of interest (whether foundered or unfounded).
Fact 3: We must assume that somehow everyone else got assessing this tenement area amazingly wrong since the last drill in 1986, yes 28 years in the interim - to the time when MSMN got the permit in 2014.
My assertion 1: : No respectable company with large cash reserves such as Chevron, Woodside, Shell, Exxon, ENI, BP or any other large oil company will commit initially exploration and subsequently significant LNG development funds – US$20 billion plus for an LNG development at 10 million tonnes per annum capacity - to what amounts to a desktop study. More drilling is substantially required there. .
My assertion 2: This required Murchison drilling would take years to do as a ball park figure, and will cost heaps (i.e. for the Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG projects in offshore WA, and the Santos’s onshore coal seam gas development in Queensland, as an example they spent buckets of cash over at least a three to five year period proving up the resource before coming to their decisions to proceed with their respective LNG development).
My assertion 3: In my opinion, the whole idea and desperation for MSMN seeking to acquire Meo is now all about progressing this Murchison drilling program (because they can’t find a farm in partner willing to stump the funds for drilling, without a significant dilution and capital raising, nor the capex for any pipedream of an LNG or gas equivalent development. . Basically in my view if we were to accept the offer at any level we would be sitting on worthless script six to twelve months down the track as MSMN will sell Meo’s assets, and use Meo cash, to fund this dream. In my view this dream won’t happen as the Murchison development is unviable..
PS definately has my vote of confidence. Moving Meo in the right direction. Time to move on and think only about Meo.
MEO Price at posting:
1.9¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
