Have taken some inspiration from both
@Novac and
@wombat777 to provide a MEP/ADN comparison. Credit to both.
Assumptions:
- Stage 1 Production: 116,000tpa
- Stage 2 Production: 233,000tpa (after 2 years)
- MSI will take on 70,000tpa of refined kaolin (paints & coatings) before ramping up to 150,000tpa 2 years after first production
- I have used an AISC of $354 (per the PFS). I understand this figure is likely to improve however I will keep my analysis conservative for now until the DFS can provide more clarity
- Debt & amortisation cost at 7% of EBITDA
- 10% dilution with the assumption that ADN/MEP will use a combination of Debt & Equity financing
We can see that even during stage 1 production, at a PE of 20 MEP's share price is expected to be ~$0.36. This represents ~177% upside to today's share price of $0.13.
As we begin steady state production (stage 2), MEP's share price is likely to range between $0.73 - $1.10 (PE 20-30). This represents ~462% - 746% upside to today's share price of $0.13. Whilst ADN'S share price is likely to range between $0.51 - $0.77, representing an upside of ~100% - 202% to today's share price of $0.255.
The DFS is upcoming and our huge BOA provides the confidence that it will be completed to a bankable standard. Surely this gap between ADN & MEP will start to close now that we have some concrete numbers to work on.
**Disclosure: Both ADN & MEP held
***DYOR
