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my apologies for some mis calculations in the above post.....

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ezirida

6,314 Posts.

1043

24/06/21

19:02

Post #: 54052707
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Originally posted by ezirida: ↑

The easiest way to calculate MEP : ADN regardless of what the share price is and assuming ( massive assumption ) that we are attributing both MC to the GW JV

is as follows

the JV ratio is 75:25 and the ratio of SOI is 81 :19

so whatever the ADN SP for example today if $0.18

then to express this in terms of the JV if they had exactly the same SOI on issue

then the SP in theory should be

$0.18 : $0.045

(just to prove this is correct, divide $0.045 by 0.25 = $0.18 )

so to find the equivalent MEP SP use the SOI ratio

$0.045 / 0.19 = $0.237

so assuming that the MC for both is a reflection of the value of the JV, MEP SP in theory only, should be slightly higher than ADN, also assuming that the number of SOI remains the same

to clarify, times ADN SP by 0.25 then divide the result by 0.19

many have speculated as to what fully diluted SOI look like for both and with options yet exercised and further raising I think the SOI ratio will remain very much the same and importantly the ratio for MEP will remain below the JV share of 0.25 therefore, in theory only, MEP share price should exceed ADN

As the project is further de risked I expect this discrepancy to narrow..

I am in no way suggesting to sell ADN rather I am only pointing out the theoretical discrepancy as it relates to MEP

It is not in MEP interest to have ADN being sold.. regardless of the above, an appreciating ADN is what we all want anyway

GLTAH and of course DYOR as always

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my apologies for some mis calculations in the above post.. please disregard !!

based on current ADN share price and JV

75 : 25

0.18 : 0.06 ( only if same SOI )

but if we take the ratio of actual SOI in the form of a multiple

then 81/19 = 4.263

then 0.06 * 4.263 = 0.255

The other way to get there would be via MC

ADN MC 389 M / 3 = 129 M

75 : 25 = 389 : 129

129 MC / 501 SOI (undiluted) = 0.257

same result give or take a few decimal places

GLTAH & DYOR !

MEP Price at posting: 10.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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