Mercedes-Benz Engaging Sila & ADO — Dual-Track Silicon Anode Evaluation?, page-4

If Mercedes proceeds to:

• Enter a multi-year supply agreement, or

• Specify ADO in a future production EV platform, this would mark a paradigm shift in ADO's business model from R&D to manufacturing-scale commercialisation.

Impact of a full supply deal:

• Validates scalability, cost-effectiveness, and manufacturability of Ultranode.

• Triggers likely re-ratings by institutional investors and tech-focused funds.

• Unlocks access to government support, co-investment (e.g., ARENA follow-on funding), and non-dilutive capital.

Valuation modelling (simplified)

	Metric	Pre-Deal Estimate	Post-Deal Potential (est. 2026–28)
1	Market Cap	~$50–60M AUD	$300M–$1B AUD+
2	Revenue potential	Nil to <$1M	$50M–$150M p.a. from 1–2 OEMs
3	Tech multiple (EV suppliers)	~3–5x forecast revenue	Up to 10–15x for early leader

3x–10x from current levels, depending on:

• Size of deal (e.g., G-Class only vs. platform-wide),

• Scale-up execution (can ADO deliver tonnage?),

• Margin profile and supply chain control.

Strategic Considerations

• Risk premium reduction: A validated product with a Tier 1 OEM reduces perceived execution and tech risk, bringing in longer-term institutional capital.

• OEM “halo effect”: Validation by Mercedes often attracts follow-on interest from other automakers and battery integrators.
• Licensing opportunities: If ADO's AnteoX binder tech is proven viable at scale, it could become a platform solution licensable to major cell manufacturers, creating a high-margin IP-based revenue stream.

A formal commercial deal with Mercedes-Benz could transform ADO from a speculative battery tech play to a validated Tier 1 supplier. The near-term effect would likely be a sharp re-rating (30–100%), while a scalable supply agreement could unlock 3–10x upside over 12–24 months, especially if paired with funding clarity and manufacturing scale-up.