Honestly, I'm one of the last people to get overly optimistic but there's a few things on my mind:
DayBue
- The value of the royalty stream and milestones US and worldwide for Rett.
- Potential royalty stream for Fragile X with terms already agreed (whether progressed on DayBue or 2591).
if we are nearly AUD $2b before PMS results and presumably the main factor in the current valuation is Rett US revenue and milestones plus future revenue and milestones for Rett ROW, the true significance of PMS looms large.
2591
- PMS. The words 'five times the opportunity' of Rett have stuck with me. Heard it so often, starting to listen.
What is five times the opportunity? Not only that but the significance of owning the full value of developing and executing 2591 in PMS alone (and having 200m in the bank plus royalty stream from Rett to do it) rather than receiving a royalty stream.
Has NEU carved out enough value from ringfencing these four indications that going alone in just these four could make it an absolute powerhouse?
For a suitor, is it more about perceiving enough value in these four protected indications alone that it is confident of a massive ROI. If the above assessment is made, will it also assess that the terms of the agreement with Acadia are not sufficiently prohibitive to pass on the opportunity?
Apart from PMS, what additional value does a suitor place on the below indications if it means having a genuine pipeline rather than a one hit wonder?
- PWS, Angelman, Pitt Hopkins trial readouts.
- Potentially 100+ indications.
if PMS is a success, why wouldn't at least some of these be too? In a bidding war, how much does a company want to see before you show your hand? What is the company next to you willing to take a chance on? What is the cost or benefit of waiting for more evidence? At 100m AUD someone could have bought the lot just a few years ago.
DYOR. Not advice. PMS trial readout still not known. Just thinking out loud.
Loving the discussions of late. All the best everyone.
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