merck's hcv drug bring's in only $21 million, page-13

Hi Saverio,

Sorry that was a typo. When I said "This one its without risk" meant to read "This one isn't without risk".

I think they are confident and the results of this trial should be good. Like others I also have high hopes for the HIV trial which is probably more signficant in the longer term.

While I believe they are onto a good thing I suspect that they decided to mvoe forward with the HIV trial when it became apparent that some new Hep C drugs would be approved (and since have been). While I believe that a commercial deal is still easily doable I think the market will get less excited about BIT225 until such a deal is done.

I suspect the share price should get support from 3 major events which are as follows:

First the results from the current trial should give it a big kicker. 30c was my earlier estimate although anybodys guess in the current market.

Second would be the start of the HIV trial which should lend fundamental support to the price and attract a lot of attention based on the previous success with BIT225.

Third would be a commercial deal based on the HVC trial results. This would likely provide funding for all of the companys operations for the foreseeable future and provide a path to recurring revenue and tangible returns to shareholders.

Finally, possitive HIV trial results would provide one hell of a kicker.


I don't like predicting share prices but I do see the first three events happening in coming months and I would be disappointed with anything short of 50c once all three of those boxes were ticked. Depending on the commercial deal and the markets generally the actual could be many times that.

Like I said though, its not without risk.