Your critical analysis skill leaves a lot to be desired, imo.
Imo you know exactly what you're up to, but i'll clarify for others who may be fooled by your claims.
You claimed:
"If Livent and AKE are going to merge, you have a choice of how you get exposure to the merged entity, Arcadium. They can eitherBuy Livent orBuy AKE Your chart shows they chose to buy AKE over Livent, hence, AKE outperformed and Livent underperformed“
...and you pointed to a chart that someone else posted, showing a timeframe that began well before the merger was announced.
Now, you post the chart from 10th May, which is when the merger was announced, and point simplistically to the relative price movement since that date to justify your claim....
However, you fail to consider one fundamental and CRITICAL aspect.
The announcement detailed a merger ratio/split between AKE and Livent, which implied a valuation of AKE that corresponded to a share price, at that date, of $
14.88.
See here:
Post #:
67709611
The AKE uptick of almost 16% that occurred on the 11th May (as the merger was announced in the evening of May 10th), brining the AKE share price to close at
$14.94, was clearly and simply an immediate revaluation that effectively aligned the prices of AKE and Livent with the relative valuations (ratio/split) in the merger announcement.
Since that time (that the share prices were "aligned" with that ratio/split), afaict, the two have tracked incredibly closely.
On Friday, LTHM closed at USD$15.52, implying an AKE sp of around
$9.80. AKE rose to
$9.70 intraday today.
Outperformance...? Oh dear.
Your claim that people wanting exposure to the merged entity were buying AKE stock and thereby caused AKE to outperform is nonsense.
If anything, there was a simple arbitrage play that occurred on the
very first trading day after the announcement. That is all.
You implying that "AKE is the one to buy", as it has "outperformed" Livent (or Livent has "underperformed" ) since the announcement, is unsupported by facts and data.
SIMPLE.
Comparison Chart from 10th May, showing AKE immediate increase to effectively meet the merger ratio (on 11th May), and relatively consistent tracking thereafter (Note, this subsequent tracking is slightly distorted by FX fluctuations, which this chart does not incorporate):
BTW, the current difference in relative performance of AKE and LTHM from the 12th May, after AKE jumped to meet the merger ratio, is only circa 2%, and that EXCLUDES FX variation in that time. When you include FX variation (below), the very slight divergences/convergences along the journey, after the 11th of May, in the above chart are largely accounted for.
If you want to create a sp comparison chart that includes both the merger ratio AND currency impacts to further prove my point, be my guest.
The facts and data clearly illustrate that after an immediate adjustment to the AKE sp (that rapidly and only occurred on the very first trading day (May 11th) after the merger announcement), the Livent and AKE share prices have "performed" essentially in unison. AFAICT there is no evidence of any "outperformance" of AKE relative to LTHM, in any way, other than on that specific date, which was explained above. Any suggestion or even implication that people should by AKE "now" due to a supposed "outperformance" is unsupported afaict.
Next time bring your A game please.
IMO
DYOR
ps. as for your "the merger will be great" narrative, you have failed to substantiate that in any meaningful way, either, but that is another topic.
