I know this is going to piss some people off (my apologies), but I had a closer look at this yesterday and I have decided not to change my vote from YES to NO.
My reasoning, without wanting to get into War and Peace, is as follows:
Cons 'We don't really own the CDIs' - I don't particularly care, I can buy and sell them as if I have full legal rights to them and they won't be taken away from me or the system, which we all buy into every day of our lives, will collapse. Not going to happen. 'CGT event' - I am 100% certain we will get ATO tax rollover relief. 'Paul Graves' - I admit, I really don't know much about him. I'm sure he will work out fine, and if not, the board will replace him. I presume that all the AKE employees that know what they're doing will be staying on. If MPDS wants out then he's probably not the best person to steer the ship going forward. 'Reverse takeover' - yes, exactly right, it gives us a listing on the NYSE, for little or no premium, plus we have CDIs here on the ASX, a fantastic result. We'll be there with the big boys and there is also the IRA. 'The merger ratio isn't quite right' - if you read that * article, when you dig into it, they estimate that the merger ratio is out by 0.9% - whoop de doo. They are essentially quite positive on the merger but the headline doesn't say that. 'Dividends and tax - no franking credits' - this is a problem, I agree, but only if the company pays dividends, which a lot (or maybe even 'most') of the stocks on the NYSE don't, and having studied finance and economics not that long ago, a capital; return equivalent to dividends can be managed by selling small amounts of shares, there is fundamentally no material difference. They won;lt be paying dividends, even if they ultimately contemplate them, for a long time, because of the growth pipeline. We can worry about that in 2030.
Pros Bigger is better and SP uplift - we got an immediate 14% uplift (when the merger was announced) which we will keep if the merger goes ahead and we may well lose if it doesn't. I also believe there is a pretty quick up-to 55% upside to the SP post merger, based on the market caps of the big boys, whom we will be joining. Don't forget, we may well be in a new world of sub 100,00 yuan LCE pricing for some time. Bigger will be better in such an environment. And if the lithium price does take off again, we will be the third largest producer and can take immediate advantage of that. Synergy savings - synergies of $200M USD (once-off) and $125M USD annual pre-tax savings (as per the scheme booklet). NYSE listing and IRA - easier and more direct access to IRA funds and IRA related business in the US because we will have a NYSE listing, with increased liquidity and access to more international capital. DLE - access to DLE technologies and other lithium and specialty chemicals expertise, including improved supply chain for big customers. Livent shorts - I see having access to Livent shorts as a good thing because, if you have a bullish view, which I do, then the shorts represent extra demand for buying shares in the merged company (perhaps a bit of a contrarian view there). CDIs - I see this as a positive - we can easily buy and sell the NYSE listed shares on the ASX without having to worry about exchange rates, higher brokerage and the unholy trading hours. SP - I see the merger as the quickest and surest way to a $20 SP.
And whilst typing this I realise that the voting deadline has just passed, five minutes ago.
Good luck to all. I only want what's best for the company and shareholders (and I do feel for people in jurisdictions where their shares will be sold compulsorily).
The meeting on Tuesday will be interesting.
AKE Price at posting:
$10.47 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held