As per PFS:
- upfront capex US$41 million
- Rosita ISR plant savings US$8 million
- EPCM through URI savings of US$3 million
- Capex savings 20 - 30% (HK presentation in March) on non-CPP capex of ~US$5 million
- Net Capex of $25 million
Together with the ease at which URI (combined entity) will be able to raise capital (equity and project finance), significant value should be realisable from Temrezli this year.
The kicker will be when Sefaatli maiden resource is released in a couple of months time. This should underwrite an additional 800,000lb/year production, by upgrading the Rosita plant for minimal incremental capex (as per Hartley's question). Essentially doubles NPV, by increasing capex by ~ 15-20%, which could probably be funded from free cashflows from stage 1.
There will be volatility as funds swap holdings and so on trying to arb the valuation difference, but the true value will emerge sooner or later and it is much much higher than where AEK is sitting right now.
AEK Price at posting:
8.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
