Hi
@anatolWe’ve discussed Ltr being taken over but many people hated discussing it. I’ve put some of them on ignore a long time ago. Anyways, as you’ve said, this is where we’re currently are. M&A is part of the business cycle, I myself had my payslip changed 3x as a result of m&a.
As has been mentioned by many theyd support TG’s team to reject any unsatisfactory offer.
Many of us are sitting on profits we’ve not had in our investing life- and this is like a two edge sword, there’s two sides to it:
(1) some are determined to hold on until production as there’s just too much cushion (and besides these have firmly stuck to the horse in roller coaster) and harvest dividends and hence will not sell unless TG says the price is good enough,
(2) but such massive profits could also be a recipe for albemarle to take Ltr at a price below fair value as long as there’s enough shareholders willing to sell once alb improves its offer to $3, $3.50 or $4 even if all of which substantially undervalues Ltr. Personally anything below $6 now substantially undervalues LTR being so closed to production. But some might feel they don’t need 4 or 10 houses, 2 are enough
I think ALB will not easily give up. TG won’t give it away imo even at $6 and therefore albemarle will aggressively use a hostile takeover- calling investors to sell their shares, using the media, and engaging so called independent valuers (take note guys, these so called experts in determining fair value of a business have actually no clue imo, they’re just playing with their excel spreadsheets as these are the same ones who were spreading negative narratives on the sector, NONE OF THEM WERE ABLE TO FORECAST THE LITHIUM PRICE IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS, SO HOW CAN THEY PROPERLY VALUE A COMPANY THAT WILL PRODUCE IN 40 YEARS A PRODUCT THAT’S IN SUPPLY IN THE CURRENT DISRUPTION?
I’m still expecting though that RIO will make a move at some point as there’s no better viable project to acquire - Tier 1, 100% owned and high ESG credential.
If ALB cannot come up with the price that enough shareholders will accept, LTR remains to be a most attractive target for such companies as RIO, Tesla, VW, and Apple.
it’s just a matter of time imo. Imagine a fish that’s been caught, it still makes its most determined move to escape. the best chance of getting us a great price would be unleashing the reserve ammunition available to Ltr when ALB lands it’s hostile bid. Including a spin off of Buldania
at the rate things are going, and in view of the shorters having to cover off still a large exposure, I won’t be surprised that our SP will jump to $3.50-$4 in a few weeks.
there’s enough progress + DSO revenue = to justify this already.
As we’ve repeatedly highlighted, the gap will th PLS will eventually be closed, and that was $12 billion at some point, it’s now around $6 billion. That’s still a lot of headroom.
$7,500 in April 2019 was $160k in April 2021
$7,500 in April 2019 is $$800k in April 2023
I believe in 2 years, the $7,500 in 2019 will be $2.7 million assuming Ltr is not eaten alive.
All the above imo.
Let the bidding war begin!
(20min delay)
