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92.5¢ liontown resources limited

"If we apply the MIN ratios above LTR’s SP should be...

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TrayonRanger

9,591 Posts.

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14/04/23

14:59

Post #: 67279448
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Originally posted by mailpal: ↑

Upon reading Anatol's post I did some research on MIN.ASX.

SP is $78 AUD.
Market Cap: $15B
Shares: 193M

If MIN had the same amount of shares as LTR (2.2B), with the same market cap its SP would be $6.84 today. In other words MIN.ASX SP is high because they have issued less shares.

However, when I looked at some other numbers that drive the SP this is what I found:
Revenue: 3.4B
Net Profit: 0.34B
Profit Rate: 10% (0.34B / 3.4B)
Dividend: $1.2

LTR’s revenue is estimated to be 3.36B at full capacity production (600 ktpa) at current market spodumene price of $5,600 AUD. With 88% profit rate (from the DFS) LTR’s net profit will be 2.2B with the current spodumene prices.

If they distribute 40% of the profits it translates to 40c per share dividend. If we apply the MIN ratios above LTR’s SP should be $26.20.

This is how I arrived at this number:

If I buy 1000 MIN shares it will cost me $78K.
My return on this is 1.2 x 1000 = $1,200.
Or, 1.54%.

To achieve 1.54% return for 40c dividend on 1000 shares, the SP should be $26.20 when it is operating at full capacity (and selling spodumene only).
(By the way, if they distribute 50% of profits the SP would be 32.75 and so on).

This is based on how the market is evaluating MIN. They may evaluate LTR differently of course but still the numbers are the numbers and they show a huge discrepancy in the current SP discussions.

Expand

"If we apply the MIN ratios above LTR’s SP should be $26.20."

Wonder if ALB are aware of this.

LTR Price at posting: $2.76 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last 92.5¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $2.243B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
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