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"If we apply the MIN ratios above LTR’s SP should be...

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TrayonRanger

10,078 Posts.

2779

14/04/23

14:59

Post #: 67279448
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Originally posted by mailpal: ↑

Upon reading Anatol's post I did some research on MIN.ASX.

SP is $78 AUD.
Market Cap: $15B
Shares: 193M

If MIN had the same amount of shares as LTR (2.2B), with the same market cap its SP would be $6.84 today. In other words MIN.ASX SP is high because they have issued less shares.

However, when I looked at some other numbers that drive the SP this is what I found:
Revenue: 3.4B
Net Profit: 0.34B
Profit Rate: 10% (0.34B / 3.4B)
Dividend: $1.2

LTR’s revenue is estimated to be 3.36B at full capacity production (600 ktpa) at current market spodumene price of $5,600 AUD. With 88% profit rate (from the DFS) LTR’s net profit will be 2.2B with the current spodumene prices.

If they distribute 40% of the profits it translates to 40c per share dividend. If we apply the MIN ratios above LTR’s SP should be $26.20.

This is how I arrived at this number:

If I buy 1000 MIN shares it will cost me $78K.
My return on this is 1.2 x 1000 = $1,200.
Or, 1.54%.

To achieve 1.54% return for 40c dividend on 1000 shares, the SP should be $26.20 when it is operating at full capacity (and selling spodumene only).
(By the way, if they distribute 50% of profits the SP would be 32.75 and so on).

This is based on how the market is evaluating MIN. They may evaluate LTR differently of course but still the numbers are the numbers and they show a huge discrepancy in the current SP discussions.

Expand

"If we apply the MIN ratios above LTR’s SP should be $26.20."

Wonder if ALB are aware of this.

LTR Price at posting: $2.76 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
9 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 83.5¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $2.024B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
84.0¢	85.0¢	82.0¢	$10.00M	11.98M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	108577	83.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
83.5¢	53840	6

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	108577	0.830
16	305827	0.825
16	197810	0.820
7	342979	0.815
11	174828	0.810

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.835	53840	6
0.840	70000	2
0.845	62634	3
0.850	178500	8
0.855	69256	5

Last trade - 16.10pm 11/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

LTR (ASX) Chart

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