I don't think there will be a takeover per se of LTR. I suspect Goyder wants to leave a mark like TO on taking something to production. Have stated that for ages, and stated even when I was a non-holder that takeover won't happen and that the BOD will take this to mining. Wish I became holder back at that time I was posting here but that is breaks here.
I however felt, back then, if there was another entity involved it would be a JV arrangement, with the main question been who is the CEO/MD of that operating entity (an arrangement similar to how you see things work in offshore LNG developments although they are unincorporated JVs) - here is the post back in August 2021, and the entity I suspected back then was Albermale/MIN (
). Relevant paragraph is (MRL I was referring to was MIN):
The only thing I will take back from that embedded post is since 2021 lithium prices trended way up, and are still much higher now despite the slight pullback of late than back then in 2021 (i.e that is spodumene prices are still muych higher than 2021 and will remain so), meaning the NPVs in any DFS back then are clearly now conservative. As I posted the other day it is a very opportunistic takeover bid now Albermale which equates to the theoretical NPV of LTR (on a PE basis) and that is very opportunistic given one will be moving to nominal metrics soon and basically if LTR SH are stiupid enogh to sell this at $250 Albermale will recover the TO cost in nominal terms in less than 8 years:
Post #:67197464Given MIN is actually more of an iron ore producer than lithium producer, though holding Wodgina and Mt Marion assets and is in some form of JV arrangement with Albermale for Kemerton/Wodgina now, I suspect if there is a JV, MIN's lithium assets will be pulled out of MIN and merged with LTR to form another entity. Hey, you might even get Albermale in as well, spinning their own share of Kermerton/Greenbushes assets in to boot, noting the way Greenbushes operates each JV partner there takes their share of Greenbushes production based on JV share with players then converting that share to downstream chemicals in their own respective hydroxide/carbonate facilities located offshore or now in Oz. If this was done, this would be an incorporated JV and LTR shareholders will get shares in that new entity.
The other approach, is like many of the LNG developments, having an unincorporated JV where each party brings assets and resources into a JV with each entity remaining listed - under this LTR can bring its spodumene into play and ask MIN/Albermale to build the hydroxide facilities etc and get benefit there.
Anyway, I don't feel a takeover will happen, and certainly not at the price Albermale is proposing, but would not discount in future some form of unicorporated JV or incorporated JV. If it is an incorporated JV suspect LTR will then focus on the Buldania assets within LTR (with LTR still listed on the ASX) whilst the KV assets move to this new entity where LTR shareholders are given shares. Personally if it is a JV would prefer an unincorporated JV itself, meaning the KV assets/other benefits of the unincorporated JV remain in, thst is LTR's share, in the listed LTR ASX share.
Either way, whatever happens here (i.e. takeover or JV) I am sure management here will certainly have the best interests of shareholders at heart. Because at the end of the day they have the bargaining stick - they can go alone to downstream processing using free cash flow to build their own hydroxide facilities. So I doubt LTR will be takenover is my point.
RT Litghium, who has been accumulating shares in LTR, actually is who holds Albermale's share of Greenbushes assets and also holds Albermales hydroxide/carbonate facilities in China (which use the Greenbushes product - the question is what is going to supply the Kemerton facilities and the expansion - Wodgina/Greenbushes/unincorporated JV with LTR???????????????????) Whilst RT lithium employs 2 people it holds a lot of Albermale's non-American assets, and I suspect it is the entity that holds the Chinese assets as well. Refer:
RT Lithium Limited Tianqi Group HK Co., Limited Leader Investment | Rockwood Holdings, Inc. | Business Contracts | JustiaRT LITHIUM LIMITED company key information - UK.GlobalDatabase.comAlbemarle Corporation - WikipediaAs a matter of interest be mindful that Albermale took over Rockwood for around US$6 billion in 2015, so it can raise capital -
Rockwood Lithium and Albemarle: After the Merger | INN (investingnews.com)For others - correct any errors as I think my VB is talking too me again.
All IMO
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