merry christmas, page-2

Merry Christmas and a safe and prosperous New Year to all :)

Hi snork, I'll start a bit early with the ramping :)

The SP is getting close to my average which is depressing when you have seen it at the $1.75 levels but if you are really bullish, great time to buy (hard to do when the SP is trashed and they have released good news except for cap raising).

I still believe in the product (and Alan) but I have not been buying any UNS (trying to diversify into other biotechs :) as it is my largest holding in a modest portfolio.

I think 2012 will be a lot better than 2011 (I know people will be saying, 'well wasn't 2011 meant to be great'). In Alan's defence, he did state in the briefing that mid 2012 would be when UNS would begin its 'hockey stick' ascent. I and a few others here were correct in thinking that a cap raising may be in the works.

I suppose if the hockey stick analogy strongly comes true in 2012, we won't mind too much if in fact there is another briefing in 2012 :)

Also biotechs generally never do things on time, that is a given for investing in this area (due to regulation - see ACL and the FDA for fonda).

To me, for Alan to say the 'hockey stick' analogy must mean he has a strong belief that contract(s) may be signed by mid 2012 (ie Sanofi). Even if Sanofi only order 20% of their prefills (ie on old figures 20% of 700m is 140m or on 1b = 200m) it should be a nice addition to our bottom line.

In reality, IMO it will probably be a lot less than 20% as that would be a large commitment but I believe it could get to that stage and even exceed that in future.

I think Alan drops hints at times ie. he mentioned Teva's Copaxone and Sanofi's Lantus as examples who changed their default devices and increased sales.

I am curious if the other pharma which has not been named is in fact Teva and in relation to Copaxone.

Obviously this is outright speculation on my part (I do remember other shareholders in the 1st briefing asking about Teva and Alan becoming a little defensive naturally).

I am only going on examples mentioned by Alan, but if true, these are billion dollar drugs (Lantus is the number one selling insulin drug and Copaxone contributes about 20% of Teva's revenues and Teva is a top 20 pharma and built its business mainly in generics - another area that Unilife is open to entering) so could be nice little earners for UNS if true.

Also Teva paid royalties to Sanofi on Copaxone which ended in April 2010 and is under potential competition from generics. This, in my mind, further strengthens the possibility that UNS and one of their devices could somehow be involved - see last paragraph in link:

http://www.activery.com/pharma-news/70-supergenerics-paragraph-iv-and-super-generics/176-teva-sues-mylan-over-multiple-sclerosis-drug-copaxone

http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Sanofi-Aventis_SA_%28SNY%29/Teva_Pharmaceutical_Industries

Sanofi will receive amounts on other supply contracts (not sure of the details - I'm sure Loogs will let me know :), makes sense to me that Sanofi may refer 'partners' such as Teva to Unilife and their products as it will benefit them.

As Sanofi no longer receive 25% of Copaxone sales, another way for them to earn revenues from this drug would be for Teva to sign a supply contract with Unilife - Alan mentioned that if we protect revenues on blockbuster drugs coming off patent, (Copaxone comes off patent in 2014) and there are already talk of generics, the pharma may share a % of revenues as well :)

Alan mentioned in 2nd briefing that we may look good to a pharma that has '140 drugs in their pipeline.' If you type 'pharma 140 drugs in pipeline,' the 4th result is Teva :) - could possibly be them as they specialise in generics. Teva just took over Cephalon, which adds a few more drugs to their pipeline (and coincidentally they have a large deal with Mesoblast, an ASX listed company :) I am reaching, I know :)

Even if we don't get to use the unifill for Lovenox, Lantus will be pretty good :)

To be fair, my post is pure speculation (and possibly trying to connect dots when there are no connection :) so please take it with a grain of salt.

As mentioned by the regulars, UNS has the biggest user of prefilled syringes in their corner and a strong team so hopefully this should bode well for us in 2012 (I am hoping the organ delivery contract is the start of the snowball effect :)