MSB

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95.0¢ mesoblast limited

I am long term holder but I have been sure before. I lost...

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bundeenabuoy

54 Posts.

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15/08/20

10:27

Post #: 46561428
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Originally posted by mja: ↑

My impression was a lot of profit taking in context of a fearful event (35% decline earlier in the week) and a few sleepless nights. Many retail investors likely reduced holdings, as they are overestimating probability FDA does not approve for on label prescribing, and are worried they may wake up to a 25-35% decline if FDA does not approve.

Many traders may have had a 5% stop and woke up to a 20% gap down, so less speculators in the stock as this is not a stock they want to speculate in going forward after being burnt.

Most long-term holders were already heavily invested and so only a small amount of topping up. Many would be investors do not want to pay 50% more than the could have bought MSB for earlier in the week. Larger funds will have to get the analysts to review and provide a recommendation. Many analysts will overestimate the chance of FDA not approving. As if they state it is almost a 100% chance of approval given 9:1 with Advisory Committee, and it is not approved they are in the dog box and can forget about promotion.

These were the drivers on Friday. I would estimate the chance of FDA approval at 98-99%. So I would expect MSB to drift upwards, and should cross $5 early next week. Eventually, those not fully up to speed with MSB will see that FDA approval is a very, very high probability event and will see that acute GVHD underwrites MSBs present value and the accumulation will be begin in earnest. Once MSB gets FDA approval (assuming this happens), revenue models can be created, including probable remestemcel use in more markets eg Europe.

In my opinion Friday was a great day to accumulate, as MSB has been significantly de-risked. After a 9:1 recommendation, can anyone see the FDA not approving a treatment for innocent children who have no other option. This is not a treatment that anyone on the street would not want to be approved or people may have an underlying bias against. I'm sure people can think of expensive treatments for self inflicted/ acquired diseases that many in the public think should not be funded as their actions led to their predicament (not that I would agree as everyone makes mistakes). But, it is hard to argue that children who through no fault of themselves have a life threatening illness should not receive an available treatment.

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I am long term holder but I have been sure before. I lost heavily on Getswift and Bigin.
You can argue logically the FDA will approve. My only worry is that the bigphamas will see MSB as life threatening to them. They will do everything legally and illegally they can do to stop approval. Should we be concerned or am I way off the mark?

MSB Price at posting: $4.70 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 95.0¢		Change 0.025(2.70%)		Mkt cap ! $1.084B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
94.0¢	96.8¢	93.5¢	$4.207M	4.417M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	42268	94.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
95.0¢	48002	3

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	41000	0.940
4	39720	0.935
1	20000	0.930
6	60000	0.925
2	431086	0.920

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.950	30347	2
0.955	20000	1
0.960	47000	2
0.965	35223	3
0.970	259286	4

Last trade - 16.10pm 09/08/2024 (20 minute delay)

MSB (ASX) Chart

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