Hi vasilios
That is a very good question. Suddenly a trial that would have been stopped at many previous stages if it wasn't working, suddenly fails. So where do these low expectations come from? Has he spoken to the doctors who have spoken movingly about this treatment? Has he seen data that no one in the company has seen (otherwise they have announced it)? What exactly are his credentials? Who is paying for the research or is it done to make a name for himself?
I have no idea, please anyone with information please post.
That said IF and I repeat IF the trail was not successful, and IF and I repeat IF the ARDS trials are not proved to be successful for emergency use, before the release of this data then he would be right.
Not linking this report, but it did occur to me that if the data from the Heart was good then the price will rocket. There has been some entertaining spats on this forum over the motives of people when they post. Shorters as the want the price to go down. Holders because they want the price to go up. I am holding so of course I want the price to go up so I want to believe all the other brokers with if I may say a history of dealing with this company who are revising their price expectation upwards. If I was a shorter then I would be crossing everything that what he says is true. I would be hoping that this "well research note" will cause Long term holders to sell in piles so I can unwind my short position for which I need a lot of volume.
We know that there are some announcements coming (it has to be next week). Therefore if I was shorting, I would want a strong correction down now!
If this chap is correct, then he will make a name for himself and his company. The note will be framed and put on display. If not then I expect it will be tomorrow's fish and chip paper as we say. I just hope that the people that count have long memories. Its a big call for him to make, so let's not judge his motives which none of us can question.
As for what to do about the note. Well I will watch the price today on the Nasdaq. I won't be selling as my faith in the evidence presented so far (and the endorsement of Novartis) that Mesoblast will be a fantastic success remains. However if it does really drop, then I might buy more.
Now as I see the price drop as an opportunity and I remain a long term holder which camp am I now in? Life is so complicated.
Just enjoy the weekend and lets look forward to next week. One of the games I enjoy playing is seeing who comes on in support of this "note". Usual suspect? Now that's an idea for a film!
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