I recall Bobby Fisher was roundly criticized for his queen...

I recall Bobby Fisher was roundly criticized for his queen sacrifice ...... until he wasn't.

It's an IQ thing.

While I mention IQ things here is one for the likes of Southoz and others to think about. I suggest that the laws of probability can be changed from normal perceptions as long as certain conditions are met as per The Monty Hall Problem. The probability laws appear to be broken via the higher percentage outcomes given here. The key thing being you know one of the remaining outcomes is a successful one and one of the outcomes already determined was not.

Now in MSB's case we have more outcomes then just three oncomes to deal with so the percentages change, but the fact remains that if one assumes success at some future point will occur then the more failures suffered through along the way the more one should buy low, and the less one should risk being locked out. The remaining subset of possible outcomes has a better probability of success than the prior steps.

I don't want to make it too long winded. Thats enough above for those familiar with the debate.