fanciful economics of mayoko

after dilution and everything looking at between $18-$28/share... assuming flat iron ore price of $100... and that there is actually resource of around 300mt minable... 60% hem 35% mag... more mag than hem... and 3 year delay on hematite operation and 5 year delay on magnetite operation. i know that is very favourable, by no means is this an accurate reflection, simply me having fun on possibilities.

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Ore treated ('000s t) 0 0 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 10000
Grade (hematite) 60.00% 60.00% 60.00% 60.00% 60.00% 60.00% 60.00% 60.00% 60.00% 60.00%
Concentrate recovery 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
Metal ('000s t) 0 0 5400 5400 5400 5400 5400 5400 5400 5400
Price US$tonne 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Ore treated ('000s t) 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000 50000
Grade (magnetite) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00%
Concentrate Recovery 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
Metal ('000s t) 0 0 0 0 15750 15750 15750 15750 15750 15750
Price US$tonne 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100






Inflation 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Exchange Rate $A/$US 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Smelter charge US$/T
($ million unless otherwise shown)
Other operating costs (?)
WASTE '000s t? (OPEN PIT) 0 0 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000
Metal Price A$/t 142.8571429 142.8571429 142.8571429 142.8571429 142.8571429 142.8571429 142.8571429 142.8571429 142.8571429 142.8571429 142.8571429
Metal Revenue 0 0 771.4285714 771.4285714 771.4285714 771.4285714 771.4285714 771.4285714 771.4285714 771.4285714
Metal Price A$/t 142.8571429 142.8571429 142.8571429 142.8571429 142.8571429 142.8571429 142.8571429 142.8571429 142.8571429 142.8571429 142.8571429
Metal Revenue 0 0 0 0 2250 2250 2250 2250 2250 2250

Less TCIRC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sales Revenue 0 0 771.4285714 771.4285714 3021.428571 3021.428571 3021.428571 3021.428571 3021.428571 3021.428571
Marketing 0 0 7.714285714 7.714285714 30.21428571 30.21428571 30.21428571 30.21428571 30.21428571 30.21428571
Net Revenue 0 0 763.7142857 763.7142857 2991.214286 2991.214286 2991.214286 2991.214286 2991.214286 2991.214286
Less
Royalty
Administration 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Mining ore 0 0 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150
Mining waste 0 0 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
Milling 0 0 250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250
EBITDA 0 0 293.7142857 293.7142857 2521.214286 2521.214286 2521.214286 2521.214286 2521.214286 2521.214286
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 900 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 5 5 CAPEX 1000
Debt Repayment 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Debt 0.2 200
Debt Outstanding 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 Equity 0.8 800
Interest Cost 17.5 15 12.5 10 7.5 5 2.5 0 -2.5 -5 Mine Life 8
EBTDA -17.5 -15 281.2142857 283.7142857 2513.714286 2516.214286 2518.714286 2521.214286 2523.714286 2526.214286 Interest rate on debt 10.00%
Taxation Depreciation 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 Assumed raising S.P 5
Depreciation carried fwd 1000 875 750 625 500 375 250 125 0 -125 -250 Depreciation p.a 125
Exploration carried 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dilution 160
Pre-tax income (EBT) -142.5 -140 156.2142857 158.7142857 2388.714286 2391.214286 2393.714286 2396.214286 2398.714286 2401.214286 # of current shares 30
Tax @ 30% -42.75 -42 46.86428571 47.61428571 716.6142857 717.3642857 718.1142857 718.8642857 719.6142857 720.3642857
Project Profit -99.75 -98 109.35 111.1 1672.1 1673.85 1675.6 1677.35 1679.1 1680.85
Cashflow project -900 5.25 7 219.35 221.1 1787.1 1788.85 1795.6 1797.35 1799.1 1800.85
THE BOTTOM LINE
NPV @ 5% $4,486.15 NPV/SHARE FD 28.03842351
NPV @ 10% $3,005.17 NPV/SHARE FD 18.78229813
NPV @ 15% $2,004.32 NPV/SHARE FD 12.52696884
NPV @ 20% $1,316.00 NPV/SHARE FD 8.225019541
IF PROJECT HAS LONGER LEAD TIME THAN 1 YEAR DIVIDE NPV AGAIN BY DISCOUNT RATES