The obsession of some MSB holders about "negative" (a.k.a realistic or factual) posters is simply bizarre.
The presence of these "negative" posters in this forum do not in any way cause the following negative events to happen:
- Teva walking out and selling out
- MNK twiddling their thumbs when MSB is desperately waiting for their decision
- MSB directors not taking up their full entitlements in the latest capital raising
- MSB being less than frank and honest in their disclosure of the result of the raising
- Celgene playing hide and seek while SI's hand is still hovering above the dotted line
- Nasdaq listing's clearing price being much lower than the previous closing price before trading halt
- MSB sneakily dropping a Phase 3 product that was supposedly closest to commercialisation by burying the details of its impairment in page 151 of the 2016 Annual Report
- MSB being dropped from S&P/ASX200
- etc.
Even if HC is only available exclusively to those who truly believe in MSB and the so-called down rampers are banned from HC, the above negative events would still have happened!
In other words, the presence or absence of "negative" posters is absolutely irrelevant to the fate of MSB.
They are simply observing:
- MSB's history of past actions/results/decisions/communications
- MSB's track record in its scientific results
- MSB's track record in capital management
And they have the right to be interested in MSB even though at the moment they don't have any position, just like:
- Australians are allowed to be interested in other countries' politics
- Sydneysiders are allowed to make jokes about Melbourne's weather
- Android phone users are allowed to wonder about why Apple users are willing to pay such premium prices
- etc.
The point is, you don't have to have a financial stake in something to be interested in that thing.
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As for MSB being the pioneer in this field, I notice that some holders have this belief that just because MSB is currently a leader in the stem cell field, then MSB has the birth right to become successful and capture most of the prize.
It is worth noting that in other industries where there was a massive technological revolution that over turned existing players, being the first didn't guarantee long term success.
- Toyota was started decades after car was first invented
- Facebook overtook Myspace even though Myspace was the biggest social networking site when Facebook started
- Google eventually overtook Microsoft even after Microsoft ruled the software world for decades
- etc.
Considering that stem cell field is the next big thing in medicine, smart people all around the world, from Europe to China to US, are throwing every brain cells that they have trying to solve this.
It is not a guarantee that MSB will be the one who succeeds and capture the bulk of the future profit. It is possible that the visionary who is going to solve all the problems in Stem Cell, is not born or even conceived yet!
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In the mean time, to bring everyone back to reality, at the current relatively low price of $1.27, MSB's market cap is still above $600m. Considering that there is not much real assets such as cash & property in the balance sheet, there is still about $590m worth of intangibles in MSB.
If there is anything less than positive trial results, the market will not hesitate to take out its giant knife and take a big slice of that intangibles. When that happens, MSB market cap will just collapse and this combined with the ever increasing number of shares on issue (that will definitely happen with or without a partnership), will simply accelerate the slump.
My advice to holders is to concentrate on the market cap and compare it with its intangibles and future capital requirement and not just on the raw share price number.
But rest assured, management will try every single spin possible in this world to picture any kind of setbacks as something positive. Their very existence depends on it!
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While I type this post, it looks like the heart-stopping roller coaster ride for MSB continues this afternoon.
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